Mike Bets #291

Happy Tuesday. Yesterday was a solid way to start the week with a 3-1 NBA record, a 1-3 CBB record, and a hit (+275) on the cross-league parlay. That’s what we in the business call a positive day. Let’s get after it again, starting with a look at my conference tournament predictions, which will have some new additions this morning.

NEC Tournament

I’ll put this back in its expanded format for second round tomorrow, but for now…

Round 1 (Feb 28): Fairleigh Dickinson

Round 2 (March 2): Bryant, Wagner, LIU, St Francis BK win

Semis (March 5): Bryant, Wagner win

Final (March 8): Bryant wins

Atlantic Sun Tournament

There’s a division-based format going on here for anyone confused on the duplicate seeds. Essentially, the 3/6 and 4/5 games are cross-division, with the 1 seeds matched up with the 4/5 game that has their division’s team as the 5 seed and the 2 seeds matched up with the 3/6 game that has their division’s team as the 6 seed. Those games will be played through regardless of seeding – the 1s play the 4/5 winners and 2s play the 3/6 winners – and the four teams standing after the second round will be reseeded for the semifinals. Like the NEC tournament, all games will be played on the campus of the higher seed.

Round 1 (March 1)

6 Stetson @ 3 Central Arkansas – Central Arkansas wins

5 Eastern Kentucky @ 4 Kennesaw State – Kennesaw State wins

6 North Alabama @ 3 FGCU – FGCU wins

5 North Florida @ 4 Lipscomb – North Florida wins

Round 2 (March 3)

3 Central Arkansas @ 2 Jacksonville wins

4 Kennesaw State @ 1 Jacksonville State – Jacksonville State wins

3 FGCU @ 2 Bellarmine – FGCU wins

5 North Florida @ 1 Liberty – Liberty wins

Semis (March 5)

2 Jacksonville @ 1 Liberty – Liberty wins

3 FGCU @ 1 Jacksonville State – Jacksonville State wins

Final (March 8)

1 Liberty @ 1 Jacksonville State – Jacksonville State wins

Horizon Tournament

Teams are reseeded after each round here. The first two rounds are hosted at the campus of the higher seed (with the exception of UIC who apparently waived all hosting rights in conference tournaments), and then the semis and final will be played in Indy.

Round 1 (March 1)

12 IUPUI @ 5 Oakland – Oakland wins

11 Green Bay @ 6 Detroit – Detroit wins

10 Robert Morris @ 7 Youngstown State – Youngstown State wins

8 UIC @ 9 UWM – UIC wins

Round 2 (March 3)

8 UIC @ 1 Cleveland State – Cleveland State wins

7 Youngstown State @ 2 IPFW – IPFW wins

6 Detroit @ 3 Northern Kentucky – Detroit wins

5 Oakland @ 4 Wright State – Wright State wins

Semis (March 7)

6 Detroit v. 1 Cleveland State – Detroit wins

4 Wright State v. 2 IPFW – Wright State wins

Final (March 8)

6 Detroit v. 4 Wright State – Wright State wins

Patriot Tournament

These games are all hosted by the higher seed. No re-seeding occurs from round to round.

Round 1 (March 1)

10 American @ 7 Holy Cross – American wins

9 Bucknell @ 8 Lafayette – Lafayette wins

Round 2 (March 3)

8 Lafayette @ 1 Colgate – Colgate wins

10 American @ 2 Navy – Navy wins

6 Loyola Maryland @ 3 Boston U – Boston wins

5 Army @ 4 Lehigh – Lehigh wins

Semis (March 6)

4 Lehigh @ 1 Colgate – Colgate wins

3 Boston U @ 2 Navy – Navy wins

Final (March 9)

2 Navy @ 1 Colgate – Colgate wins

TODAY’S PLAYS

NBA record: 148-141-6 ATS (18-35 Underdog ML), 13-16-1 O/U, 4-6 parlay, 0-2 props

• Wizards -3

The Wizards have won four of ten, which isn’t exactly great. But one of those losses came in a wild 2OT game and two more came by single digits on the road. They won in Philly at the start of this stretch too. They’re playing decent enough basketball, and that means they should cover a one-possession line against a bad Pistons team. Detroit lost in Washington by 9 two weeks ago, and they’re 4-13 in their last seventeen. They’ve turned it on lately with wins in three of four after a brutal 1-12 stretch, but I’m not betting on that to continue. When they fell in Washington on Valentines Day, the Pistons were 4-25 on the road. They’ve won two straight away from home since. Do we really think they get to three?

• Nets +8

The Raps won by 36 in Brooklyn last night. The obvious caveat there is the absence of Kyrie, who will be able to play tonight, but Toronto played without Fred VanVleet, who might make his return tonight. They also played without OG Anunoby, but he goes in the Joe Harris/KD long-term injury category. In any case, I like the Nets tonight. They’ve either won or lost by 4 or less in their last four road games after a pretty brutal stretch of blowout losses, and it’s never easy to roll against the same team when you play them twice in a row. This line is a little big.

• Mavs -5.5

The Lakers are 6-14 over their last twenty. That’s a stretch that includes nine losses of at least 6 points. With AD remaining out and the Mavs winners of seven of the last nine, I’ll take Dallas to win and cover.

CBB record: 273-302-5 ATS (43-45 Underdog ML), 7-23 parlay

• Providence +9.5

Providence is 24-3 overall and 8-2 away from home. They kept Villanova within 5 last time out. Villanova, meanwhile, has just one win of more than 6 points in their last seven games. This line is massive. Take Providence.

• Toledo +115

Toledo at plus odds? Toledo at plus odds. The Rockets are 15-3 in MAC play and two wins away from an outright conference title. They’re 15-1 against every MAC team not named Kent State, and only two of those fifteen wins came by less than 8 points. Buffalo has been red hot with nine straight wins, but they’re beating up on the bad teams in the MAC. Against Toledo, Ohio, Kent State, and Akron, the other four teams with a positive conference record, they’re 1-3 with three double digits losses. They won’t win tonight.

• Akron -3.5

Ball State has lost four of six since handing Toledo that one non Kent State conference loss, and they’ve lost two of three at home despite some pretty poor competition. Akron has been turning it on again too with three straight wins, including a big win over Ohio last time out. I like them to keep it rolling.

• Kansas -6

Kansas is 21-1 against unranked teams this year, and that includes three straight wins of 13+ against them. The 2-4 record against ranked teams is perhaps important, but we’ll save that for another day. TCU finally broke through against a ranked team when they beat Texas Tech over the weekend, but it was rather ugly in these games before then with four double digits losses in five tries. Kansas rolls.

• VCU -4.5

VCU has gone 10-1 in their last eleven to set up a shot at the tourney. Now they just need to pass two tough tests against St Bonaventure and St Louis to close the season. The Bonnies have won seven in a row, but they’ve struggled rather mightily on the road outside of an impressive win in St Louis. They won at St Joes by just 2 and at La Salle by just 4, and George Mason, Dayton, and Richmond all beat them by 9+. I like VCU to take care of business tonight.

• Florida -110

Florida is simply a better team than Vandy. They’re two games better in SEC play and three and a half games up on the full season. They’re 6-4 over their last ten while Vandy is 4-6. They beat them by 19 at home earlier in the season. The Gators aren’t great on the road, but take them to win here. They should.

• Michigan -4.5

MSU is 1-4 with a two-point over Maryland marking the lone win in their last five road games. Michigan needs this one. They make it happen. Go Blue.

• Wisconsin +130

The Big Ten is on the line in this one. Wisconsin all but clinches things if they win given that Nebraska visits in the season finale. If Purdue wins, though, we’re looking at the possibility of a three-way tie with Illinois also in the mix. I like the Badgers. Purdue has been fairly average on the road at 5-4, and they just haven’t been the consistently dominant force they were forecasted to be heading into Big Ten play. Madison will be absolutely insane, and Wisconsin picks up their fifth win in a row.

• Arizona -4.5

Arizona turned in their worst effort of the season in an ugly loss to Colorado last time out. They come out firing tonight. USC is good, but they’ve also won nine games by 5 or less points on a relatively weak schedule. They’re simply not as good as 25-4 would suggest. Arizona needs a statement for tourney seeding after last weekend’s chaos, and they make one tonight.

Conference Tournament record: 0-1 ATS (0-0 Underdog ML)

• American +110

American pulled off the sweep of Holy Cross during the regular season, and they’ve won three of six down the stretch. Holy Cross, meanwhile, has won just once in their last six games. I’ll take a shot at American at plus odds.

• Central Arkansas PK (-110)

Central Arkansas is 7-4 at home, and Stetson is 4-10 on the road. With this being a campus game in the first round of the ASun tournament, that’s enough for me here. But we can throw in the fact that Central Arkansas went 4-4 down the stretch while Stetson lost their last five and six of their last eight.

• Kennesaw State -4

Eastern Kentucky is 1-12 on the road with the win coming back in the first half of November, and they were 0-4 away from home with four losses of 7+ in February. Kennesaw State is a respectable 9-6 at home with impressive wins over Jacksonville and FGCU, and I’ll take them to cover here.

• Florida Gulf Coast -11

FGCU closed the season with seven wins in eight tries, and they beat North Alabama by 32 about three weeks ago. They cruise against them in this one.

• North Florida +148

I picked North Florida to win above, so I’ll ride them here. They’re hot at the right time with six wins in their last seven games, and I think they can knock off an underwhelming Lipscomb team.

• PARLAY (ALL MLs): Florida Gulf Coast, Kennesaw State, Lafayette, Youngstown State, Detroit, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Tennessee (+410)

• PARLAY (ALL MLs): Toledo, VCU, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin (+1770)

• PARLAY (ALL MLs): Ohio, Kansas, Kent State (+119)

NBA/CBB PARLAYS: 5-14

• PARLAY (ALL MLs): Wizards, Clippers, Mavs, Ohio, Kansas, Kent State, Boise State, Arizona (+1155)

Let’s have a Tuesday.