Mike Bets #156 – Last Day

We made it. It feels like this regular season has dragged on forever, but here we are on its last day. After all thirty teams finish their season by the end of the night, we’ll have our playoff field. To start off, let’s look at what’s at stake because there’s still a lot to figure out. Only three of the twenty playoff seeds are set. Below, I’ll have the results of every possible scenario covered for each team that could move up or down.

EAST

1. Sixers (CLINCHED)

2. Nets

• 2 seed with win OR Bucks loss
• 3 seed with loss AND Bucks win

3. Bucks

• 2 seed with win AND Nets loss
• 3 seed with loss OR Nets win

4. Knicks

• 4 seed with win
• 4 seed with loss AND Hawks loss AND Heat loss
• 5 seed with loss AND Hawks loss AND Heat win
• 5 seed with loss AND Hawks win AND Heat loss
• 6 seed with loss AND Hawks win AND Heat win

5. Hawks

• 4 seed with win AND Knicks loss
• 5 seed with loss AND Heat loss
• 5 seed with loss AND Knicks win AND Heat win
• 6 seed with loss AND Knicks loss AND Heat win

6. Heat

• 4 seed with win AND Knicks loss AND Hawks loss
• 5 seed with win AND Knicks loss AND Hawks win
• 6 seed with loss OR Knicks win

• Tiebreaker reminders: Knicks > Hawks, Hawks > Heat, Heat > Knicks; if 3-way tie: Heat > Knicks > Hawks

–—

7. Celtics (CLINCHED)

8. Hornets

• 8 seed with win
• 9 seed with loss AND Pacers loss
• 10 seed with loss AND Pacers win

9. Wizards

• 8 seed with win
• 9 seed with loss AND Pacers loss
• 10 seed with loss AND Pacers win

10. Pacers

• 9 seed with win
• 10 seed with loss

——–

11. Bulls (CLINCHED)

12. Raptors (CLINCHED)

13. Cavs

• 13 seed with win OR Magic loss
• 14 seed with loss AND Magic win

14. Magic

• 13 seed with win AND Cavs loss
• 14 seed with loss OR Cavs win

15. Pistons (CLINCHED)

WEST

1. Jazz

• 1 seed with win OR Suns loss
• 2 seed with loss AND Suns win

2. Suns

• 1 seed with win AND Jazz loss
• 2 seed with loss OR Jazz win

3. Nuggets

• 3 seed with win OR Clippers loss
• 4 seed with loss AND Clippers win

4. Clippers

• 3 seed with win AND Nuggets loss
• 4 seed with loss OR Nuggets win

5. Mavs

• 5 seed with win OR Blazers loss
• 6 seed with loss AND Blazers win

6. Blazers

• 5 seed with win AND Mavs loss
• 6 seed with win AND Mavs win
• 6 seed with Mavs win AND Lakers loss
• 7 seed with loss AND Lakers win

–—-

7. Lakers

• 6 seed with win AND Blazers loss
• 7 seed with loss OR Blazers win

8. Warriors

• 8 seed with win
• 9 seed with loss

9. Grizzlies

• 8 seed with win
• 9 seed with loss

10. Spurs (CLINCHED)

——

11. Pelicans

• 11 seed with win OR Kings loss
• 12 seed with loss AND Kings win

12. Kings

• 11 seed with win AND Pelicans loss
• 12 seed with loss OR Pelicans win

13. Timberwolves

• 13 seed with win OR Thunder loss
• 14 seed with loss AND Thunder win

14. Thunder

• 13 seed with win AND Timberwolves loss
• 14 seed with loss OR Timberwolves win

15. Rockets (CLINCHED)

That should cover playoff positioning, but we can also look at the lottery situation. Here are the reverse standings –

1. Rockets
2. Pistons (3 games back)
3. Thunder (4)
4. Magic (4)
5. Cavs (5)
6. Timberwolves (5)
7. Raptors (10)
8. Bulls (13)
9. Pelicans (14)
10. Kings (14)
11. Pacers (16)
12. Spurs (16)
13. Wizards/Hornets (16)
14. Grizzlies/Warriors (21)

Few notes –

• Pistons can clinch sole possession of a top three spot with a loss today
• Tiebreakers here – as we discussed a few days ago – only apply to odds for #5 pick and below. So, say Thunder and Magic finish where they are right now. Their lottery odds for each of the top 4 picks would be the average of the odds for the 3rd and 4th positions. So if the 3rd position has a 20% chance at the #3 pick and the 4th position has a 10% chance (these are made-up numbers), they would both end up with a 15% chance at the #3 pick. Then, from the 5th pick and on, the Thunder (lower by tiebreaker) would assume the odds of the 3rd position while the Magic assume the odds of the 4th position.
• The 3-6, 8-10, and 11-13 spots are the ones to watch tomorrow
• As far as I’m aware, any team currently in the 11-14 zone that ends up making the playoffs through the play-in would then not pick in the lottery and would be replaced by the higher seed that gets eliminated. That higher seed would then take their own regular season record into the lottery standings to determine where they pick.

With that, we get to today’s games. I won’t go into much detail here because the stakes should be clear above, but I’ll point out what’s on the line when with the games spread throughout the day. All times are central.

• 12 noon

Hornets @ Wizards: Winner gets the 8 seed and an extra loss in the play-in

Pacers @ Raptors: Pacers get the 9 seed if they win but stay in the 10 seed if they lose

Celtics @ Knicks: The Celtics are locked at 7, but the Knicks can still finish anywhere from 4 to 6. With a win, they clinch the 4 seed

• 1 pm

Suns @ Spurs: Spurs are locked in at 10. Suns need to win to keep hopes of 1 seed alive. Will get the top spot with win and Jazz loss later in the day.

• 2:30 pm

Grizzlies @ Warriors: Simple – winner takes the 8 seed

• 6 pm

Cavs @ Nets: Nets clinch the 2 seed with a win

Magic @ 76ers: Magic clinch share of bottom three with a loss

Rockets @ Hawks: Hawks clinch top 5 seed with win, could rise to 4 if Knicks lose earlier

• 7 pm

Heat @ Pistons: If the Knicks win in the afternoon, Heat will already be locked into 6 seed. If Knicks lose, Miami can at least get 5 seed with win here (4-5 possible with win depending on Atlanta)

• 8 pm

Clippers @ Thunder: Clips win + Nuggs loss = Clips in 3 seed

Nuggets @ Blazers: Nuggets clinch 3 seed with win. Blazers clinch 6 seed with win. Both teams open door for dropping a spot with a loss, would hurt Blazers far more

Lakers @ Pelicans: Lakers can move out of play-in if they match win with Blazers loss

Mavs @ Timberwolves: Mavs clinch 5 seed with win

Jazz @ Kings: Jazz clinch 1 seed with win – may already be clinched depending on Suns

Bucks @ Bulls: If Nets win earlier, Bucks will be locked into 3 seed. With Nets loss, Bucks can claim 2 seed here

TODAY’S PLAYS

I LOVE the board today. We’re 11-6-1 on the week. Let’s finish strong.

Grizzlies +4

Cavs +14

Spurs +9

Heat -5

Clippers -8

Mavs -6.5

Pelicans +10.5

Nuggets +10.5

Bucks -1.5

Hornets +6

Celtics +12

Pacers -6