Mike Bets #158: West Play-In

Yesterday, the Pacers led things off with a hammering of the Hornets. They were up by 24 at half in a game that was never close. That win earns them a date with the Wizards tomorrow night while Charlotte will go home for the summer. This date won’t end with a kiss, but it will end with the winner taking the East’s 8 seed and heading to Philadelphia for the first round of the playoffs. Indiana is playing Washington because the Celtics pulled away from them in the second half of yesterday’s second game. Only seven total players scored in double figures in a contest that was decided by Jayson Tatum’s 50 point showing. Tatum and Kemba Walker (29) combined to match Washington’s top five scorers with 79 total points. It’s almost impossible to win a game when you’re on the wrong side of a stat like that. The victory gives Boston the 7 seed, and they’ll kick off their first round series in Brooklyn this weekend.

With that, we can turn the page to the relevant games for today – the West play-in. The Grizzlies and Spurs will kick things off. The Warriors and Lakers will follow. Today’s games are an hour later than yesterday’s, but everything else will remain the same as far as the format, stakes, etc.

Let’s run through some keys to the games and make picks.

Spurs @ Grizzlies, 6:30 Central (ESPN)

Keys:

1. Efficiency

Both teams take a massive amount of shots, even for their pace. The Grizzlies are 2nd in field goal attempts per game but 8th in pace. The Spurs are 7th in the former but 15th in the latter. By rule, then, both teams must either be rather inefficient or incredibly high-scoring. We see the inefficiency occurring: Memphis ranks 18th in FG% and San Antonio ranks 20th. So why is efficiency a key to this game? If one team can get hot and make more of those shots than they typically do, this one could be over quickly. It’s an obvious path to winning, but it’s a valid one to consider here with two teams that take a ton of shots but struggle to make them at any great clip.

2. Turnover Battle

The Grizzlies are first in the league in steals, barely edging out the Sixers. On the other hand, the Spurs are where they tend to be – near the top of the league in turnover percentage. San Antonio just doesn’t turn the ball over, and maintaining that level of ball security today could greatly diminish a leading aspect of Memphis’s game. The Grizzlies score a higher percentage of their points in transition than any other team in the league, and they’re fifth in percentage of points of turnovers. They really rely on their ability to force teams into coughing the ball up. Tonight, the Spurs might either turn it over a lot or not much at all, and the result could lead to one of these two teams seeing a drastic shift to a central component of their game.

3. Threes

Neither team shoots them much. The Spurs depend on the midrange more than any other team in the league and ranks 29th in threes per game. Memphis is down at 23rd. Remember where both of those teams sit in pace, and it’s a big drop. They’re not particularly efficient from deep either with both sitting 20th or lower in 3PT%. The key for tonight then in a one-off game: make your threes. If one team has a hot night, they’ll have a huge advantage.

4. Memphis’s Offensive Paint

This might ultimately decide the game. The Grizzlies depend on scoring in the paint more than any team in the league. While some of that is due to a high volume of transition scoring, there’s certainly more to it than that. They get the ball to the rim. The Spurs aren’t very good at stopping teams from doing that, ranking 26th in points in the paint allowed. This is a clear area of the game where Memphis has a firm advantage. If they control it, they should win.

Prediction:

Memphis is the better team, ranking around league average in various overall metrics while the Spurs drop to around 20th. I do worry a little bit about their forced turnovers being limited, but they should be able to control the paint and still do a lot of the things they want to do in this one. They got the experience of playing in one of these last year, and they should roll here with the whole team finally back and healthy.

Grizzlies 124, Spurs 115

Play: Grizzlies -4

Warriors @ Lakers, 9:00 Central (ESPN)

Keys:

1. Team Basketball

I’m going to all over the place in this one, but stick with me. Full disclosure – I want the Lakers to lose as much as the next guy. Unfortunately for me and the next guy, they’re clearly the better team here. Despite their extended slide to the finish, they’re still 8th in the league in net rating, point differential, and SRS. The Warriors are 14th-15th in all three. LA has two elite players and a more experienced group of capable supporting players than Golden State.

With all that said, I don’t like the narrative that the Warriors suck outside of Steph. It exists to prop up the MVP campaign of a man that finished with the 8 seed, and it’s not really all that accurate. Draymond Green is a good player. Andrew Wiggins is a good player. Kevon Looney, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damion Lee, Kent Bazemore, Jordan Poole, and more had good seasons. It’s obviously not a perfect group – that’s why we’re having this discussion – but the idea that it’s Steph and a bunch of scrubs just isn’t fair to these guys.

Anyway, back to the point here: the Lakers are the better team, and they should win this game. LeBron’s shortcoming against these Warriors have always been a lack of support by comparison to what GSW is throwing out there. I wouldn’t say the roles have completely flipped, but he’s clearly leading the better group here. There’s no excuses to be found if they don’t take care of business.

2. Shooting (and pace)

The Warriors are fifth in threes per game and ninth in 3PT%. The Lakers are fourth in threes allowed and opponent 3PT%. Here’s the simple reality – the Warriors won’t win if they don’t win this battle. They need their threes against a tough defense, or they’ll be playing for the 8 seed in two days. One extra piece I’ll add to this – playing with pace will be key. The Warriors are fast; the Lakers are relatively slow. Speeding things up will open the floor, giving the Warriors more opportunities to find the looks they want from deep.

3. Defense

You might be surprised to learn that the Lakers are 24th in scoring efficiency. It’s probably more of a surprise that the Warriors are 20th. Both of these teams rely on defense, ranking 1st and 5th in defensive efficiency, respectively. There are two takeaways here. The first is that the Warriors, again, are clearly far more than Steph and Steph alone because I guarantee you he’s not the driving force behind a top five defense. The second is that both of these teams struggle to score. It won’t be any easier tonight against tough defenses. Why does that matter? This is a one-game, winner-take-all scenario, and if either team falls behind early, they’re going to struggle to keep up the rest of the way.

4. The Glass

The Lakers aren’t an elite rebounding team – they rank 9th in rebounding percentage – but they’re good enough to take advantage of a bad rebounding team. That is what the Warriors are. They’re 27th in rebounding percentage, and they struggle on both the offensive and defensive glass. Second-chance points could play an important role here. One one side, the Lakers are great at limiting them while the Warriors don’t score many of them. On the other side, the Warriors struggle to limit them. If Anthony Davis can lead an effort to keep possessions alive, it could give LA a crucial edge.

Prediction:

Memphis is the better team, ranking around league average in various overall metrics while the Spurs drop to around 20th. I do worry a little bit about their forced turnovers being limited, but they should be able to control the paint and still do a lot of the things they want to do in this one. They got the experience of playing in one of these last year, and they should roll here with the whole team finally back and healthy.

Prediction:

The Lakers are the better team. They should win. On the other hand, they haven’t been at their best for a while now. We know from last year that they can flip the switch (they were god-awful in the seeding games), but this is a new type of environment. Will it come on as easily in an actual NBA atmosphere? I’ve given Steph some shtick so far, but he’s having a special season. I wouldn’t want to be on the other side of him in a one-game scenario.

Warriors 121, Lakers 118

Play: Warriors +180