Mike Bets #514

Happy Tuesday. Yesterday was a 2-2 day. Both spreads hit; both totals lost. We’ll take it and move on. I’m going to be a little late for Knicks-Heat tonight and don’t really want to touch that game with Butler out anyway, so we’ll just have some Lakers-Warriors plays tonight. But first, a look at last night’s action…

• Sixers 119, Celtics 115

Losing this game in Boston with Embiid out was nothing short of embarrassing for the Celtics. James Harden looked geriatric for much of the first round against the Nets, and he absolutely cooked Boston last night on his way to 45 points. He made more two-point field goals in Game 1 than he did in the Brooklyn series as a whole. Strong efforts from Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, and De’Anthony Melton gave the Sixers enough to beat a Celtics team that got 82 points from Tatum, Brown, and Brogdon and shot 58.7% from the floor. The Celtics weren’t fantastic from three, going -21 from beyond the arc. But that had more to do with their volume (just 26 attempts compared to 38 for Philly) than their efficiency (38.5% is pretty dang solid). Outside of the inability to guard Harden, this one was lost on ball security. The Celtics had 8 more turnovers, which was a big piece of the reason they had 14 less shots than Philadelphia. That’s what allowed a Sixers team that lost the paint points battle 42-66 and was -5 on free throws to stay in the game. Bottom line: this one was huge for the Sixers. They didn’t win this game with a ridiculous outlier performance (If it’s not Harden it will be Embiid). They earned it, on the road, despite the Celtics playing pretty well. And now a series that had Boston comfortably favored has been flipped on its head.

• Nuggets 97, Suns 87

This one was ugly. The Suns got 81 of 87 points from four players. 73 of 87 came from three players. Asking three guys to score 84% of your points is not a sustainable approach. The questions about depth have been there ever since the KD trade, if not even before, and that problem is rearing its head right now. The Suns got 6 points in 93 minutes from players not named KD, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton. 6 points in 93 minutes! Cam Payne, Torrey Craig, Josh Okogie, and Damion Lee, who all played at least 10 minutes, were awful from the floor (a combined 2-17). KD wasn’t hitting either, going 2-12 from three. And suddenly there’s zero offense outside of Booker chucking and a Paul/Ayton shot here and there. Denver didn’t shoot particularly well either, going 7-27 from three. They managed 19 less shots than Phoenix. They got six less offensive rebounds and turned the ball over three more times. MPJ was really bad. KCP or Aaron Gordon was the second best offensive player last night. And they still managed to control the paint, win the free throw battle (one of the cons of your offense centering around iso jump shooters if you’re the Suns), and walk away with a pretty comfortable 2-0 lead. Jokic was fantastic, and the Nuggets are in a really good spot.

SERIES PREDICTIONS VS ACTUAL OUTCOMES

✅✅✅ = right team, right number of games

✅✅ = right team, one game off

✅ = right team

❌ = wrong team

First round tally: 4-4 on team picks, 2 within a game 

Second Round

Nuggets in 6 (original pick)

Celtics in 5 (original pick)

Knicks in 5 (Bucks>Cavs was original pick)

Warriors in 5 (Grizzlies>Kings was original pick)

TODAY’S PLAYS

NBA record: 245-215-7 ATS, 33-76 ML, 133-104-4 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, 0-1 series price -34.07 units

NBA regular season record: 225-198-7 ATS, 32-67 ML, 116-90-3 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, -23.62 units

NBA postseason record: 20-17 ATS, 1-9 ML, 17-13-1 O/U, 0-0 parlay, 0-1 series price, -10.45 units

• Warriors -4.5

• Lakers Warriors O227

SERIES BETS

• Warriors to win series (-150) – TWO UNIT PLAY

CBB record: 254-229-12 ATS, 57-83 ML, 5-5 O/U, 17-25 parlay, -9.83 units