Mike Bets #15

It all comes down to today for the four teams fighting for the West’s play-in tournament. The scenarios are pretty simple, but there are still a lot of moving pieces with the four games today. Let’s run through it.

Making the Play-in

This is very simple –

• Blazers: Win OR losses from two of MEM, PHO, and SAS and you’re in
• Grizzlies: Win OR losses from PHO and SAS and you’re in
• Suns: Win AND get a loss from either POR or MEM and you’re in
• Spurs: Win AND get a loss from two of POR, MEM, and PHO and you’re in

What happens if…

• Blazers, Grizzlies, Suns win and Spurs lose

8. Portland versus 9. Memphis

• Blazers, Grizzlies win and Suns, Spurs lose

8. Portland versus 9. Memphis

• Blazers win and Grizzlies, Suns, Spurs lose

8. Portland versus 9. Memphis

• Everyone loses

8. Portland versus 9. Memphis

• Everyone wins

8. Portland versus 9. Memphis

***

• Blazers, Suns win and Grizzlies, Spurs lose

8. Portland versus 9. Phoenix

• Blazers, Suns, Spurs win and Grizzlies lose

8. Portland versus 9. Phoenix

***

• Blazers, Spurs win and Grizzlies, Suns lose

8. Portland versus 9. San Antonio

***

• Grizzlies win and Blazers, Suns, Spurs lose

8. Memphis versus 9. Portland

***

• Grizzlies, Suns win and Blazers, Spurs lose

8. Memphis versus 9. Phoenix

• Grizzlies, Suns, Spurs win and Blazers lose

8. Memphis versus 9. Phoenix

***

• Grizzlies, Spurs win and Blazers, Suns lose

8. Memphis versus 9. San Antonio

***

• Suns win and Blazers, Grizzlies, Spurs lose

8. Phoenix versus 9 Portland

***

• Suns, Spurs win and Blazers, Grizzlies lose

8. Phoenix versus 9. San Antonio

***

• Spurs win and Blazers, Grizzlies, Suns lose

8. San Antonio versus 9. Portland

***

For reference, there are fifteen scenarios above.

• Portland makes the play-in in 11 of them. They are the eight seed in 8.
• Memphis makes the play-in in 9 of them. They are the eight seed in 4.
• Phoenix makes the play-in in 6 of them. They are the eight seed in 2.
• San Antonio makes the play-in in 4 of them. They are the eight seed in 1.

There’s a pretty clear order of likeliness here.

Yesterday’s Results –

It was another down day overall to make it roughly $100 down in five days, but the curse was broken when the Thunder came all the way back to beat the Heat. The Clippers covered to end the night, and we’re officially riding a winning streak here at Mike Bets.

Total Record: 38-38-1 on individual bets, 5-29 on parlays, -37.05

My picks for today – 

• Wizards -3.0 (-105)

The Celtics are sitting their six best players – Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown, Daniel Theis, and Marcus Smart. They have nothing to play for.

The Wizards weren’t good to begin with, which is why they’ve really struggled without Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans. They still have a number of heavily used starters and rotation players though, and they’ll be going all out today. Washington can get their first bubble win against Boston’s bench mob.

• Lakers -6.0 (-110)

The Lakers still need to find a rhythm before the playoffs begin, and everyone but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Alex Caruso will be available. The Kings, on the other hand, are missing their best player in De’Aaron Fox and another key player in Richaun Holmes.

I’m not going anywhere near Sacramento here.

• Mavs ML (+400)

The Suns have been incredibly impressive in the bubble so far, but they’re due for a dud. It comes here against a deep Mavs team that only has Kristaps Porzingis (doubtful) listed on the injury report. It’s highly likely that we see the starters play less than normal given their secured spot as the 7 seed, but the Mavs have played great basketball without their best players as recently as this week when they came back late to cruise past the Jazz without Donic, Porzingis, and Finney-Smith. At +400, I love Dallas here.

• Grizzlies -3.5 (-105)

Giannis and Wes Matthews are out for the Bucks, who could not have less to play for here. I doubt we see any meaningful run from any of Milwaukee’s important players. Memphis needs this game, and they get it.

• Spurs -8.0 (-110)

The Jazz are missing Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, their most important player. They don’t have a whole lot to play for, and their starters likely won’t see much run. Utah hasn’t been very good recently with a run of games without their full complement of players, and that continues against a determined San Antonio team here.

• Blazers -10.0 (-110) – LOCK OF THE DAY

Dame Time. This is what he’s here for, and his teammates help him finish the deal against an overachieving Nets team that’s due for a big loss.

• Magic -4.0 (-110)

The Pelicans will be without Zion, Brandon Ingram, and Jrue Holiday. I refuse to bet on them again this season, no matter who Orlando ends up running out there (Fournier, Ross, Gordon, Carter-Williams all out). Go Magic.

Today we win.