Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #450

4 min read

Happy Friday. Yesterday was carried by the NBA, where I went 3-1 to pull within five units of even on the season. The CBB record was a decent enough 3-3-1, but the three unit play, Southern Miss, never had a chance. They got smashed. We’ll take a roughly even day, but we’ll also do better today. Let’s get after it. But first, a look at yesterday’s action…


  • Giannis exited early in the second quarter with a wrist sprain, and Khris Middleton didn’t play. But Brook Lopez and the Bucks had no issues with the Bulls in Chicago. Milwaukee is just half a game back of the Celtics heading into the break, and they’ve won twelve in a row. No one is hotter. On the other side of the coin, not too many teams are colder than the Bulls, who have lost six in a row. They’re two games out of the play-in and in rough shape heading into the break.
  • The Wizards turned an eleven-point deficit into an eight-point win in Minnesota during the fourth quarter. Bradley Beal dropped 35. We suddenly have a tight jam in the 8-10 zone out East, where the Hawks are half a game ahead of the Wizards who are half a game ahead of the Raptors. With the 8 seed having a much more straightforward path to the playoffs, that’s going to be a desirable spot. The Timberwolves are tied for the 7 seed with the Pelicans.
  • Paul George and Terance Mann combined for 52 in a Clippers win in Phoenix. They’ll hold sole possession of the 4 seed over the break with the Suns half a game back in the 5 seed. Kevin Durant still hasn’t been cleared for contact, but having a full week off of games will help diminish the game-based impact of the absence regardless.


  • Houston is 24-2 (12-1) after rolling past SMU.
  • Purdue’s strong grip on a 1 seed and the Big Ten title is suddenly looking very shaky after another loss. They’re 24-4 (12-4) after losing to Maryland. Northwestern can pull within a game of the Boilermakers at the top of the Big Ten with a win over Iowa on Sunday. Maryland has just about locked up a tourney spot with this one. They’ve got a shot at chasing a 5 or 6 seed with a strong finish.
  • UCLA is 13-2 in Pac 12 play after beating Stanford. Arizona is a game and a half back after getting past Utah. They play in Arizona on March 4 in the season finale. We’ll see if someone can knock off UCLA before then to make the game count in the conference title race.
  • Gonzaga dropped 68 in the first half on the way to revenge over Loyola Marymount. LMU managed just 65 points all game. The Zags are still a game back of St Mary’s after the Gaels held on to beat San Diego after blowing a huge halftime lead.
  • Florida Atlantic has a really unfortunate propensity for losing once they become ranked. They’re 24-3 (14-2) after falling to Middle Tennessee State last night. An at-large tourney spot is still theirs to lose, but there might not be too much room for error left.
  • North Texas is 22-5 (13-3) after beating Louisiana Tech. They’re up to 46th in NET. Put them in the at-large discussion!
  • Charleston is 26-3 (14-2) after crushing Elon. The margin for error is non-existent, but all they can do is keep winning.
  • Memphis squeaked past UCF to keep themselves in okay position. They’re on the right side of the bubble but not by much. A win in either of their two games against Houston over the next few weeks could change that.
  • Arizona State has fallen apart down the stretch. They lost again to Colorado last night. The Pac 12 is down to UCLA, Arizona, and maybe Oregon or USC.
  • USC avoided a bad loss last night, crushing Cal.
  • Southern Miss got smacked by South Alabama, and their lead at the top of the Sun Belt is down to one game with three to go.
  • Oral Roberts is 24-4 (15-0) after edging past North Dakota. They’re 43rd in NET. The good news? They only have Quad 1 losses. The bad news? They have zero Quad 1 and one Quad 2 wins. That’s probably not gonna be good enough, even if they win.
  • Iowa rolled past a dreadful Ohio State team.


NBA record: 150-130-5 ATS, 26-45 ML, 77-56-1 O/U, 1-7 parlay, 0-1 props, -4.47 units

No plays. It’s the All-Star break.

CBB record: 154-144-7 ATS, 32-53 ML, 4-3 O/U, 8-17 parlay, -28.32 units

  • Cleveland State -1.5
  • Oakland -2.5
  • New Mexico ML (+105)
  • Kent State -17.5

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