Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mikes Bets #102

5 min read

It’s time to introduce a new series after the actions of certain teams last night. Let’s get to some Daily Callouts.


The Tennessee basketball program deserves to have all of their assets liquefied and delivered to my address after what they did last night. The losses – only $22 – weren’t dramatic. Remember that we’re responsible gamblers here. But if Tennessee – a top 25 team even despite their recent slump – had just managed to hold a half-time lead against 8-8 Ole Miss, I would have been +$84 from this game instead of -$22. The Vols crashed a pick and a parlay. How is this the type of performance you produce after blowing out Kansas? With 15:00 left, Tennessee hit a three to go up 38-27. They were well on their way to winning for the parlay and covering -3.5. Then they managed to score just 12 points the rest of the way, allowing a 12-25 run to end the game. It was a despicable loss for a former top ten that would be hard-pressed to make it to the second weekend of the tourney right now.

For Ole Miss, this was a really impressive and well-deserved win. Barring a miracle turnaround that lasts well beyond this game, it’s too late to get an at-large bid. This is the kind of momentum they need heading into February and March though.


You had them Purdue. With 3:45 left, you went up 56-49 on Maryland. The game was yours to lose. Then you went out and lost it in a closing stretch that included a foul up one with just 3 seconds left. It’s a disappointing loss for the Boilermakers, who could have risen to 8-4 in Big Ten play with the win.

For Maryland, it’s a massive win. They have the three road victories over Minnesota, Illinois, and Wisconsin, but they had yet to win another Big Ten game. This changes that, and their last eight games include Penn State twice, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State, Rutgers, and Minnesota and Ohio State at home. That’s as easy as it gets in the Big Ten this year. An at-large bid is in sight.


Iowa has one of the two best offenses in the country. They’re fantastic, and they scored 84 in a win last night. The problem? They allowed Michigan State to score 78. This is the same Michigan State team that had scored more than 68 just twice in eight tries in Big Ten play. One of those came against Nebraska. They had scored 37 and 62 in their last two games, the first ones back from a multi-week covid break. Iowa’s offense is a massive problem for other teams. The defense is a massive problem for them.

For MSU, the loss drops them to 8-7 (2-7). They’re in 13th place in the Big Ten. Even if they beat Nebraska and Penn State in their next two games, they’re looking at a closing stretch of Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, OSU, Maryland, Indiana twice, and Michigan twice. That’s nine games against better teams, and the Spartans would need to go 6-3 to get to an even conference conference IF they beat Penn State. It’s becoming pretty hard to see this team making it to March.


I guess Auburn doesn’t like the idea of an at-large bid. There’s no other reason they would have let Georgia drop 91 on them yesterday. The loss drops the Tigers to 10-9 (4-6), and they’ve now lost to Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and UCF. The win over Missouri isn’t making up for all that. Auburn had been playing good basketball with Sharife Cooper. They were favored by almost 10 points last night. But it appears that Cooper’s addition might have been a little too late to save the season. You can’t expect that transition to happen without any bumps, and there was very little margin for error to begin with. It’s almost entirely gone now.

Georgia, meanwhile, is 11-6 (4-6). Auburn, Cincinnati, Ole Miss (twice), and Kentucky isn’t a very impressive list of wins, and the loss to South Carolina isn’t ideal. This is not a team that has looked worthy of a tourney bid so far in SEC play, but the door is still there. If they beat Vandy and Texas A&M in their next two, we’re looking at a 13-6 (6-6) team heading into a final stretch of Bama, Missouri, Florida, LSU, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Win a few of those, and they’re in a good spot.


Wake Forest (+5.5) was down by 3 at half. They lost the next 14:30 by a score of 9-34. Ridiculous.


Almost heaven

West Virginia

Blowing leads

To the ISU Cyclones

Life was good when

You were up by fifteen

Then you blew it

Blew it like a breeze

(a lyrical masterpiece, I know)

The boys from West Virginia only ended up winning by 4. Shame.


Dayton, man. What are you doing? After consecutive wins over St Louis and Rhode Island to get to 10-4 and build a huge amount of momentum, Dayton allowed Duquesne to win the first half 39-24. They couldn’t complete the comeback in the second half. Duquesne isn’t a tournament team, but they’re solid. This loss alone won’t kill Dayton. It still hurts. The losses to Fordham and La Salle are just terrible, so you’re going to want as many wins as you can get to feel safe. This certainly won’t help, and Dayton finishes the season (after a few more games in-between) with a very tough four-game stretch.


PSU lost the second half 25-39 to quickly fall out of the coverage zone. You can’t be mad about a 1-1 split with a very good Badgers team, but Penn State was getting a lot of points with the line last night. Wisconsin doesn’t really blow out teams either. Their 16-point win last night is tied for their biggest Big Ten win of the season. Oh well.


NBA betting is the worst.

And, with that, we end today’s daily callouts. Before we get to the picks, Toledo (now the clear MAC frontrunners), Buffalo, Baylor (who took control of the Big 12), Nevada, Clemson (who picked up a very nice win over UNC to hopefully break their slump), and Illinois and USC (both won hard-fought games to keep the pressure on Michigan and UCLA at the top of their respective conferences) all deserve credit for taking care of business.

College Basketball Record: 288-276-5 on individual bets, 9-53 on parlays, -$87

All Involved CBB Picks: 357-328-8 ATS, 28-46 Dog MLs

NBA Record: 20-41, 1-7 on parlays, -$530 (and we’re back down again)

$11 for spread, $10 for ML

  • Houston (-16.5) v. East Carolina
  • Mercer v. ETSU (+125)
  • Western Carolina v. Chattanooga (+105)
  • Seton Hall (-2.5) v. Providence
  • Virginia Tech (-4) v. Pitt
  • VCU (-2.5) v. Rhode Island
  • Alabama v. LSU (+8.5)
  • Nova (-10) v. St Johns
  • Creighton v. Georgetown (+14)
  • SMU v. Tulsa (+140)
  • San Diego State (-18) v. New Mexico
  • Missouri (-4.5) v. Kentucky
  • CBB Parlay – $16 to win $46

MLs for Missouri, VCU, Virginia Tech

  • NBA Picks

Celtics (-1.5) v. Kings

Suns (-3.5) v. Pelicans

Bucks (-8) v. Pacers

Heat v. Wizards (+8.5)

Mavs v. Hawks (+115)

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