Selection Sunday: Whose fate is on the line?

Let’s do a quick run through of how the field stacks up before today’s bracket selection. There are 68 spots to go around and only 31 conference tournament champs this year, so there’s 37 spots for the at-large teams. Let’s see who will be sweating today out.

The Auto Bids (minus the American):

Hartford

VCU/Bonnies

Georgia Tech

Texas

Liberty

Georgetown

Eastern Washington

Winthrop

OSU/Illinois

UC Santa Barbara

North Texas

Drexel

Cleveland State

Iona

Ohio

Norfolk State

Loyola Chicago

Mount St Mary’s

Morehead State

San Diego State

Oregon State

Colgate/Loyola MD

Alabama/LSU

UNC Greensboro

Texas Southern

Abilene Christian

Oral Roberts

Gonzaga

Grand Canyon

App State

That’s 30 teams.

Houston/Cincy

In the American, we have a special situation. In the other conference championship games today, we either have a winner-takes-all game (Colgate v. Loyola) or a game between two tournament locks (the other three). In Houston v. Cincy, we have a potential bid thief. Cincinnati is not making the field unless they win, but Houston will be in either way. We’ll circle back to this in a bit, but we will get at least one of these two for 31 total teams.

At-Large Locks:

VCU/Bonnies

OSU/Illinois

Alabama/LSU

UVA

FSU

Virginia Tech

Clemson

UNC

Baylor

Kansas

Oklahoma State

West Virginia

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

Villanova

Creighton

UConn

Michigan

Iowa

Wisconsin

Purdue

Rutgers

Oregon

USC

Colorado

Arkansas

Tennessee

Florida

Missouri

BYU

That’s an additional 30 teams. So, 31+30 is 61. That means we have seven spots left. If Cincy wins, there are only six. That’s why that game is so important.

Now, there are separate tiers among these bubble teams. Maryland, UCLA, and Michigan State, for example, are all almost certainly in the field. I would basically consider them locks, and it would be a shock if any of them are left out. That brings us to four spots for the following teams –

Ole Miss

Utah State

Boise State

Colorado State

Drake

Western Kentucky

Louisville

Syracuse

Wichita State

Memphis

St Louis

St Johns

Seton Hall

From here, if we’re crossing teams off, I’m taking out Ole Miss, Seton Hall, and St Johns immediately. Those three just didn’t take advantage of enough opportunities. Then I’m taking off Memphis, who fell twice in close games against Houston. That’s the season. Then I’m taking off Boise State. They went just 3-7 against teams with a winning record this year. that won’t get it done. That leaves us with eight. Remember that we have four spots (unless Cincy takes one of those).

Utah State

Colorado State

Drake

Louisville

Western Kentucky

Syracuse

Wichita State

St Louis

This is what it comes down to for me. Which of these eight teams does the committee like most? I don’t envy the ones that have to make this decision.