Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #257

4 min read

Happy Tuesday. The week started well yesterday with a parlay hit on my only NBA play and a 3-1 CBB record. Some people are pointing out that I’m 69-53-1 in my last 123 college plays, but I would never do that. I’ll just go back to the board and try to find some more winners. Let’s get to it.


NBA record: 99-104-5 ATS (16-23 Underdog ML), 11-14-1 O/U, 2-2 parlay, 0-1 props

  • Hornets +145

Charlotte has been turning on the jets lately, creating 2.5 games of separation from the 8 seed and getting closer to that crucial top six. They’re 7-2 in their last nine, a stretch that includes a 3-0 road mark. In Toronto, against a Raptors team that’s lost five of seven, I like the Hornets at plus odds. With the other two games in this season series coming in Charlotte in February, they could take a decisive lead in the fight for a potentially important head-to-head tiebreaker.

  • Nets Lakers U227

I don’t love either one of these teams right now, so I’m not confident in picking a side on the spread. But I do like the under with KD and Kyrie out and AD likely struggling a bit in his return. This is a lot of points, and I don’t see them getting there.

  • PARLAY: Nuggets, Celtics, Sixers MLs ($15 to win $15.70)

The Nuggets are taking on a Pistons team they led by 16 after three quarters in a weekend win. Detroit is winning more, but they’re still very clearly a bad rebuilding team. Denver should pick up another win to keep their momentum going.

The Celtics are playing decent basketball, and the Kings have lost eight of ten. They’re bumming right now. Winning in Boston is a tall order.

The Sixers are getting a mediocre Pelicans team that had to grind out a win last night. A lot of their guys played 30+ minutes, and Brandon Ingram might not be available today either. Philly hasn’t been great at home this year, but they don’t pass up on a good chance to get a win.

CBB record: 150-163-3 ATS (18-29 Underdog ML)

  • DePaul +17.5

DePaul hasn’t lost a game by more than 17 all year and has looked better these last few weeks. Villanova has been a bit up-and-down the last couple games. This is a pretty big line, and I like DePaul to get the coverage job done.

  • Alabama -15

Betting on Alabama to cover against a bad team can be a risky business, but Georgia is quickly approaching auto fade no matter the circumstances territory. They’re 0-6 in SEC play with four losses of 15+, which puts them at nine double digit losses in just nineteen games this year.

  • Toledo -4.5

I loved Toledo last year and have been on them a decent amount this year. They cruised at Ohio over the weekend to take control of the MAC, and they won’t give that up here. Buffalo is solid, but they’ll fall in Toledo’s building tonight.

  • Rutgers -3.5

Rutgers at home. Book it.

  • Michigan State +5

If Kofi Cockburn doesn’t play, this is incredible value. Regardless, this is a lot of points to be giving the Big 10 leaders. Illinois has been very good at their best, but so has Sparty. I’ll take five points in a game they can absolutely win outright. They just won in Madison by 12.

  • Duke -11.5

Duke has played a few very frustrating games but has otherwise been pretty dang good and dominant. At home, against an underwhelming Clemson team, they should cruise. The ACC title is still well within reach with Miami and FSU just half a game ahead.

  • Kansas State +14

Baylor has played seven Big 12 games, and their biggest win was by 14. Kansas State, meanwhile, has beaten Texas and Texas Tech, and their five conference losses have been by 3, 3, 3, 13, and 2 points. They’ve been keeping these games close all year, and they do it again tonight.

  • Syracuse -4

Pitt is pretty awful, and Syracuse, while very mediocre, has generally done well in games against the teams they should clearly beat. They beat Pitt by 16 two weeks ago, and they take care of business tonight.

  • Auburn -13

We’ll find out tonight how well Auburn deals with the pressure of being #1, but they’ve been nothing short of fantastic this year. Missouri has really struggled against good teams not named Alabama, and they will have a tough time of keeping this one close in front of what should be a wild crowd.

  • Air Force +110

Air Force has two conference wins while San Jose State has yet to come closer than 8 points in a Mountain West game. I would take Air Force to win.

  • UCLA +3.5

I like UCLA to make a statement at home here. Arizona is just 1-1 in ranked games this year, and there’s an element of disrespect in having the Bruins as underdogs in their own building.

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