Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #270

3 min read

Oct 20, 2021; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas coach Bill Self during the question and answer session of the Big 12 Basketball Tipoff at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Monday. What a finish to the week last night. 5-1 NBA. 5-3 CBB with a +150 dog winner. A cross-league parlay winner. It was such a strong finish that I forgot about the college parlay that Iona sunk. We were in the green from the jump last week, and then we sealed the deal on Sunday. Let’s do it again.


NBA record: 123-120-5 ATS (16-31 Underdog ML), 12-15-1 O/U, 3-5 parlay, 0-2 props

  • Raptors -1.5

I like Toronto to win this one, and the line is essentially the same as taking their ML. The Raps have won five in a row and six of seven in a stretch that includes wins over the Hornets, the Bulls, the Hawks twice, and the Heat twice. They’re playing really well. Charlotte, meanwhile, has slipped after a brief run of their own, losing four in a row and six of the last eight. I’ll ride the hot hand.

  • Heat -6

Four of the Wizards’ last six games have ended in losses of 14+ points as part of a stretch where they’ve lost six of eight. This just isn’t a very good team, and it’s hard to imagine the trade deadline drama surrounding Bradley Beal and others isn’t having some effect. The Heat can hold onto the East 1 seed with a win, and they’ve won two in a row. They make it three without too much difficulty tonight.

CBB record: 200-215-5 ATS (28-33 Underdog ML), 0-4 parlay

  • UNC Wilmington +6

UNC Wilmington is 10-1 in Colonial Athletic play. Hofstra has been good at home, but they’ve won most of those games close. Half of their wins there have come by 7 or less points, and most of the rest were early season cupcakes. I’ll take six points with a good UNCW team.

  • Chattanooga -4.5

Chattanooga beat Mercer by 9 over the weekend to move to 9-2 in Southern play and stay on top of the standings. I’ll ride the Mocs to get it done again here in the second game of this mini series.

  • Duke -11.5

Duke is starting to hit their stride again with four wins of 9+ in five tries, and there’s not a whole lot of space between them, and Notre Dame and Wake Forest at the top of the ACC. They’ll be up for this one. Virginia is just 3-5 on the road with three double digit losses. Another one is added to the tally tonight.

  • Furman -6

Furman is very capable of some frustratingly bad performances, but they’ve also won seven conference games by 15+ points. That’s higher than a 50% blowout rate. ETSU hasn’t been very good this year, and they fall victim to a Furman team looking to bounce back from one of those bad losses tonight.

  • George Mason +7

George Mason has lost by more than 5 points three times all year, and one of those was a 9-point loss to Kansas. I like their odds at covering here. Richmond is a good team that’s been playing some really good basketball lately, but this line is a little big.

  • Temple -4.5

Eight of South Florida’s last nine games have ended in a loss of 12+ points. They’ve lost by 19, 31, 20, and 19 their last four times out. They’re really bad. I’ll take a Temple team that’s been good (6-3) in AAC play to win comfortably here.

  • Kansas -1.5

The Jayhawks are theoretically due for a letdown after murdering Baylor the other day, and Texas at home has been a different animal this year. That being said, Kansas is still Kansas. A win here would really set them up nicely to move towards another Big 12 championship with their next four games coming against the bottom half of the conference. Texas has been a little iffier at home recently too, with some very close calls and the loss to Kansas State coming in the last few weeks. Rock Chalk.


  • PARLAY: Duke ML, Temple ML, Furman ML, North Texas ML, Arizona ML, Heat ML, Suns ML, Warriors ML (+570)

Let’s start the week off right.

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