Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #271

4 min read

Michigan center Hunter Dickinson (1) drives the ball against Maryland in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Tuesday, Jan. 18, 2022. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Happy Tuesday. Monday included a 2-0 NBA record, a cross-league parlay loss, and a 2-5 CBB record. I’ll blame Duke and Temple for everything. It wasn’t a great start to the week, but it also wasn’t that bad. You can always be worse than 4-6. We’re still up and punching, and I’m ready to bounce back tonight.


NBA record: 125-120-5 ATS (16-31 Underdog ML), 12-15-1 O/U, 3-5 parlay, 0-2 props

  • Celtics -6

The Nets are in auto fade territory right now. They’ve lost eight in a row. The last four have come by double digits. Kyrie won’t be able to play with the game in Brooklyn. LaMarcus Aldridge will miss the game too. James Harden is questionable with a hamstring injury. It’s ugly for them right now, and the Celtics have won five in a row and seven of eight with all of those wins coming by at least 6 points. They’re rolling where the Nets are sliding, and they win comfortably here to pass Brooklyn in the standings.

  • Pelicans -9

I said the other day that I’m liking where the Pelicans are right now. They’re up to 19-20 when Brandon Ingram plays, a record that would put them right up with the Clippers and Lakers in the 8-9 seed range had they played at that pace in the fourteen games without him. Instead, they lost twelve of fourteen there and are fighting for the 10 seed. But they’re in a far better spot than the other last-ditch play-in contenders, and I think that’s their spot to lose as things stand right now. They beat Houston by 13 in Texas the other day, and tonight, at home, they give them their sixth double digit loss in seven games.

  • Bucks -4.5

The Bucks are playing pretty well again, winning seven of ten and eight of twelve. They’re back up to the East’s 2 seed and sit just one game back of the Bulls, a rather fortunate circumstance given the Lopez injury and the various ups-and-downs they’ve sorted through this season. They beat the Clippers by 24 on Sunday, and the LA sweep is completed tonight. Anthony Davis has been putting up numbers since he came back, but the Lakers are just 3-3 in those games and 4-6 in their last ten. I don’t see them protecting home court here.

  • Timberwolves -4.5

The Timberwolves have won eight of eleven, including four straight by double digits. The Kings, meanwhile, are 4-13 over their last seventeen. They’ve won their last two home games, but Minnesota is playing just a little better than the Nets and Thunder, the two teams they beat in those games, right now. This line is pretty small. I’m not staying away.

CBB record: 202-220-5 ATS (28-33 Underdog ML), 0-4 parlay

  • Marquette +6

The Golden Eagles are rolling. They’ve won eight of nine and haven’t lost a game by more than 6 points since 2021. That loss? An eight-point defeat in Milwaukee against UConn. They keep it closer this time around. The Huskies are just 5-3 since that game with the wins coming against Georgetown, DePaul, St John’s, and Butler (twice).

  • Toledo -3

The Mike Bets faithful know that we love Toledo. They crushed Ohio earlier this year in a road game; I like them to win here at home. A loss to Ball State last time out interrupted their nine-game winning streak, a streak that included eight wins of 8+ points, but that interruption will be brief. Rockets to the moon with the MAC lead on the line tonight.

  • Auburn -2

Auburn has played some interesting games against the likes of Georgia and Missouri in recent weeks, but they show up when the competition is there. Their last five games against potential tourney teams –

  • +19 v. Bama
  • +18 v. Oklahoma
  • +9 v. Kentucky
  • +4 @ Bama
  • +12 v. Florida

At just -2, they’re the play. Arkansas has won eight in a row and is playing much better basketball, but that ends (temporarily) tonight.

  • Villanova -4

Nova has won four of five by 11+. They’re really good. St John’s is solid, but they’re still just 13-9 (5-6). This line is too small to pass up.

  • Michigan -2

Go Blue. Season on the line. The boys deliver.

  • St Mary’s -2.5

St Mary’s is 19-4 (7-1). Outside of the elephant of mid-majors that is Gonzaga, they’ve been as good as any in the country. Santa Clara is having a nice season, but they’re 0-3 against St Mary’s, Gonzaga, and San Francisco for a reason. That becomes 0-4 tonight.

  • PARLAY: Indiana ML, St Mary’s ML, Michigan ML, Colorado State ML, Akron ML (+932)


  • PARLAY: All MLs – Kentucky, Bucks, Pelicans, Grizzlies, Mavs, Hawks, Timberwolves, Celtics (+765)

Let’s have a Tuesday.

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