Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #278

3 min read

Happy Tuesday. Yesterday wasn’t a terrible start to the week with a 1-1 CBB record and a 3-3 NBA record, but a late loss of coverage for the Nuggets and two parlays that both lost on a single leg left the vibes feeling less than positive. We change that today. Let’s get after it.


NBA record: 135-131-6 ATS (16-33 Underdog ML), 13-16-1 O/U, 4-6 parlay, 0-2 props

  • Sixers +135

The Celtics have won eight in a row and have to lose at some point. A road trip to Philly to take on a Sixers team with seven wins in their last ten seems like a good opportunity for that. I’ll take the 76ers at plus odds. Joel Embiid has been on an absolute tear.

  • Heat -4

The Heat have just one home loss since January 15, and that came in overtime. The Mavs are just .500 on the road this year. They drop a game below in this one.

  • Cavs +100

I’ll take the Cavs at plus odds. They’re significantly better than the Hawks, who have cooled off after a few mini runs, losing four of their last five and six of their last seven. Cleveland wins this one.

  • Grizzlies -4.5

The Grizzlies have won eight of nine by at least 7 points and are an elite 20-9 on the road. Against a Pelicans team that just played last night and hasn’t been particularly protective of homeport, they roll again.

CBB record: 226-246-5 ATS (34-33 Underdog ML), 1-11 parlay

  • Kentucky -105

Kentucky has taken care of Alabama and Kansas in their last two big road games, and they crushed Tennessee 107-79 when they played in Rupp Arena one month ago today. They haven’t lost to a team other than Auburn since January 4. Tennessee, meanwhile, is 1-5 against currently ranked teams. They’ve had some close losses in there, but they add another one to that total tonight.

  • Wisconsin +143

Both teams have been pretty poor recently. Wisconsin is just 4-3 in their last seven with a home loss to Rutgers, an absolute rock fight of a 51-49 win over Penn State, a double digit road loss to Illinois, and relatively underwhelming wins over Nebraska and Minnesota. Indiana has lost four of six since topping Purdue, getting blown out by Michigan and Illinois in their own building and dropping games in Evanston and East Lansing. At +143, I’ll take the Badgers to get this done. I think they’re the superior team, and the Assembly Hall advantage has worn off recently.

  • Colorado -4

Oregon State has lost nine in a row, with seven of those losses coming by double digits. That includes a 23-point loss in Colorado two Saturdays ago. I don’t see them coming close here. Colorado has disappointed against decent teams, but they’re 3-0 against the four teams below them in the Pac 12 standings.

  • Providence +4.5

Providence still has just two losses on the year. I’ll take 4.5 points at home, especially with Villanova coming into this off of two wins of just six points each over inferior St Johns and Seton Hall teams.

  • Florida -105

Florida has done very little against good teams this year outside of toppling Ohio State in non-conference play, but they’ve largely taken care of business against worse teams. A&M has lost eight in a row and hasn’t won in exactly one month. They’ll be waiting longer.

  • VCU -8

VCU has won three straight by 9+. That streak continues against a bad Fordham team.

  • Oklahoma -105

This is a season-defining game for Oklahoma against a Texas team that’s 2-6 on the road. They get the job done.

  • Michigan State -2.5

This line is just too small. Michigan State beats Penn State by at least a little more, even on the road. This win would put them back within a game of the top of the Big Ten.

  • PARLAY: Ohio -10.5 and Toledo -8 (+260)

Ohio beat Miami OH by 23 on the road. They can beat them by 11 at home. They’ve dominated everyone in the MAC with the (rather important but irrelevant here) exception of Toledo. Toledo will get revenge for one of their two MAC losses here against Kent State. They’re 8-1 in their last nine and all eight wins came by at least 8 points.


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