Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #282

5 min read

Happy Sunday. Friday was a decent 1-2 parlay (and positive overall) day, and it could have been better if Ohio hadn’t laid an egg against Kent State. That game is in the past though, and today we look to the future to find some winners. Let’s close the week on a high note.


NBA record: 136-135-6 ATS (16-35 Underdog ML), 13-16-1 O/U, 4-6 parlay, 0-2 props

CBB record: 231-254-5 ATS (36-35 Underdog ML), 2-15 parlay

  • Wright State -1.5

Wright State is 13-6 in Horizon play, and four of those losses came to conference-leading Cleveland State and a tough Northern Kentucky team that is somehow 4-1 against the conference’s top three teams and 7-5 against everyone else. Pewaukee’s own Grant Basile is the best player in the Horizon, and his team can keep at least a little bit of pressure on Cleveland State for the conference title with a win here (Oakland has more of chance with a one-game deficit in the loss column and a matchup with Cleveland State in the season finale). Regardless, Wright State is well-positioned to roll over an inconsistent Detroit team they beat by 31 a few weeks ago.

  • Michigan +125

Did someone say resume-confirming road win over a top 15 team that just lost to Rutgers at home and is 2-2 in their last four games in Madison with the wins coming by 8 combined points over Penn State and Minnesota? I’m pretty sure that’s the word on the street. Go Blue.

  • Providence -3.5

This is a must-win for Providence as they look to hold off Villanova at the top of the Big East and move up from the 4 line of the recently released bracket preview. There’s a lot on the line here. Four of their last five wins have come by 4 or less points despite a mix of underwhelming competition, but this is a chance to break out of that. They’ll have motivation to bounce back from the loss to Nova, and Butler was just absolutely destroyed by St Johns on Friday night. This line is small enough to take for Providence.

  • Fairfield +12

Iona went through a 5-0 stretch in January where they won four of the five by 12+ points, but they have just one such win in their other ten MAAC games despite their 8-2 record there. That’s closer games in ten of fifteen chances, including these last six where they’ve lost twice and failed to win by more than 9. This isn’t really a Fairfield bet as much as it’s thinking Iona won’t get to 12.

  • Houston -7

Houston has plenty to play for the rest of the way after being left out of the committee’s early top sixteen. They’ve yet to pick up a Quad 1 win this year after falling short against Wisconsin and Alabama and letting both SMU and Memphis beat them last week. The 18-point win over UCF on Thursday was a good sign that they’re ready to bounce back down the stretch, and Wichita State has been less than impressive in AAC play. They haven’t been an easy blowout target, but Houston got them by 10 a while ago after Memphis beat them by 18. Seven is doable.

  • Missouri State +110

Loyola’s loss to Drake, the capper on a recent string of losses, has this game meaning a lot more than most would have thought it would. Missouri State and Northern Iowa are suddenly tied at the top of the MVC with Loyola, and Drake is just a game back with a relatively easy last three games in front of them. We have some drama. I like Missouri State to avenge an 84-85 loss from earlier in the season in this one, and I’ll take them at plus odds. They have an average margin of +7 to go along with their 11-4 conference record, and UNI is a little worse at +3.07. Even when you take out the 27-point loss to Loyola, they’re coming in at +4.9. Missouri State has had the better year, and they get some vindication for that here.

  • Temple +6.5

Temple beat Cincy by 3 at home a few weeks ago and hasn’t lost by double digits in more than 2 months. They could lost by single digits and not cover here, but I like them to keep it close enough to get within 6. This is a decent enough Temple team playing a Cincinnati team that hasn’t been particularly great. They should cover.

  • Marquette +110

Creighton somehow hasn’t played a team other than DePaul, Butler, or Georgetown in 16 days, and they’re just 8-7 in their last fifteen games against teams outside of that group of three. I don’t think Creighton is bad, but I’m not sure they’re all that good either. Marquette bounced back against Georgetown last time out after consecutive losses, and they’re still 9-3 since their loss to Creighton back on January 1. They get revenge today.

  • Mississippi State -4.5

I don’t know what’s going on with Missouri and Mississippi State this week. A Friday/Sunday two-gamer makes absolutely no sense in the SEC. But here we are. Mississippi State needs as many wins as they can get down the stretch to keep tourney dreams alive, and this is a prime opportunity to pick up another one. They won by 19 on Friday night. Now they just need to do it on the road.

  • SMU +130

I don’t know if this is an NCAA tournament elimination game, but it’s about as close as you can get to one before the conference tournaments start. At home, at plus odds, I’ll take SMU over Memphis. Whether it’s fully rational or not, I still don’t believe in Memphis.

  • Rutgers +12.5

Rutgers has now ripped off consecutive wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois to push themselves back towards the bubble, and they haven’t lost by double digits since January 11. This is a prime opportunity for them. I don’t know if they pull it off, but they should cover. Purdue has won by 12+ just four times in sixteen Big Ten games, and they’ve allowed Northwestern and Maryland to keep things close their last two times out.

  • PARLAY (ALL MLs): Mississippi State, USC, Cleveland State, Houston, Iona, Providence (+512)
  • PARLAY: Wright State -1.5, Providence ML, Houston ML, Michigan ML (+736)


Let’s have a Sunday.

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