Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #298

3 min read

Happy Tuesday. Yesterday was a solid start to the week with a 1-1 NBA record and a 5-3 CBB record with an additional hit on a parlay that was essentially even (+109). There’s nothing quite like ending Monday in the green (expect ending Sunday in the green). Let’s keep it rolling it today. There are six conference championships tonight – NEC, WCC, Horizon, CAA, A Sun, and Summit – and we also get the start of the ACC, WAC, Big West, Conference USA, and MAAC tournaments. For the sake of spacing, I moved all conference tournament predictions to their own article instead of creating a continually growing list here. That article will be updated throughout the next ten days, including a look at my win-loss accuracy in each tournament as it goes on, and I’ll always have the link here.


NBA record: 158-152-8 ATS (19-35 Underdog ML), 13-16-1 O/U, 4-6 parlay, 0-2 props

  • Pelicans +5.5

The Grizzlies have been uneven lately with four losses in their last seven games, and the Pelicans have been playing some fantastic basketball since the break even with their overtime loss to the Nuggets last time out. This is a decent amount of points, and I like them to cover it.

  • Bucks -13.5

The Thunder have lost seven straight home games, all by at least 8 points. Six of those losses have come by 12+. The Bucks have a lot of momentum right now, and they ride it to a blowout win in this one.

  • Clippers +5.5

The Warriors are 2-9 in their last eleven with a 2-point win over the Lakers and a blowout win over the suddenly hapless Blazers as the only positive marks on the record since February 7. They’ll be getting a rotation refresh after about half of the usual guys – including Steph, Klay, and Andrew Wiggins – sat out last night’s loss to Denver, but I’m not sure how much that means at this point. Golden State is really struggling. The Clips, meanwhile, have won seven of ten, and I like them to bounce back from a bad loss to the Knicks the other night. I’ll take five and a half.

CBB record: 332-351-5 ATS (52-60 Underdog ML), 10-33 parlay

Conference Tournament record: 27-26 ATS (4-9 Underdog ML)

  • Bryant -3.5

It’s Bryant time. Let’s ride. It’s time for our boys Peter Kiss and Charles Pride to lead the Bulldogs to the promised land.

  • Jacksonville +125

The top two seeds are out in the A Sun, so 3 and 4 will battle for the auto-bid instead. Both Jacksonville and Bellarmine went 11-5 in conference play, and Bellarmine won their regular season matchup, a home game for them, by 3. Jacksonville, however, is 10-2 over their last twelve to Bellarmine’s 8-4, and they were the better team against other top conference teams during the regular season. At plus odds, I’ll take a shot on them.

  • St Mary’s +13

I don’t think Gonzaga loses this game. But, their last five games against solid WCC teams have been a 16-point home win over St Mary’s, a 12-point home win over Santa Clara, a 16-point road win over San Francisco, the loss at St Mary’s, and a 10-point WCC tournament win over San Francisco. Expecting them to win this by much more than 13 just isn’t all that reasonable, and I like St Mary’s to play this relatively tight. They’ll be inspired to prove their win wasn’t a fluke.

  • UNC Wilmington +120

Like I said yesterday, I couldn’t tell you why Wilmington is continually an underdog against teams with significantly worse records, but I will continue to bet on them and take advantage while it lasts. They went 15-3 in conference and are now 7-1 in their last eight. They swept Delaware during the regular season and beat them by 7 on the road just two weeks ago. They grab the auto-bid tonight.

  • Wright State -102

Wright State was my pick to win the Horizon. Let’s finish this off.

  • PARLAY: South Dakota State and Bryant MLs (+125)

Smash it (responsibly). Let’s have a Tuesday.


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