Happy Thursday. We had a solid day yesterday to really get the week going. I went 0-1 in the NIT with Wake Forest failing to stop the runaway train that Texas A&M has been for most of March, but the NBA record was 4-2 on individual games with an additional parlay loss thanks to the Magic. That’s far from a big day, but it’s also far from a bad day. We’ll take those. Tonight is a big night with four Sweet 16 games. Let’s find some winners.
NBA record: 177-173-8 ATS (19-38 Underdog ML), 13-16-1 O/U, 4-8 parlay, 0-2 props
- Cavs +5
The Cavs are 6-10 without Jarrett Allen this year, but they’ve been a more feasible 4-4 over this current eight-game stretch that he’s missed. They’re not playing great basketball, but they are hanging in there. Against a Raptors team that’s a game beneath them in the standings and just 9-9 over their last eighteen in their own right, that should be enough to cover a decently-sized line. This should be a close fight between two teams desperate to win and claim the East’s 6 seed. We’re in the home stretch now. These games matter.
- Bucks -9
The Bucks are just one win away from being within a game of the East’s 1 seed after the fiasco that was Miami’s loss to the Warriors last night. With the Sixers and Celtics in the same boat – though not playing tonight – this is a prime opportunity for Milwaukee to take advantage of a bad Washington team that’s started to fall apart down the stretch with ten losses in their last thirteen games.
- Suns -105
We went over this yesterday. You bet the Suns when you get favorable odds. They’re a tank, regardless of CP3’s availability, and he’ll be there tonight. The Nuggets have stagnated a bit the last few weeks, and I like the Suns to make it two wins in two days. They’ll get it regardless, but they can lock up the 1 seed with a win (or Grizzlies loss) tonight.
- Grizzlies -11.5
The Grizzlies are a wagon, and the numbers suggest they’re even better with Ja out of the lineup. Against a bad Pacers team, they’re worth a toss in this one. No one has been able to stop the Ja-less Grizz this year.
CBB record: 371-391-7 ATS (60-77 Underdog ML), 12-43 parlay
Conference Tournament record: 43-43-2 ATS (7-17 Underdog ML)
NCAA Tournament record: 16-18 ATS (3-7 Underdog ML)
- Arizona -1.5
This one is simple. I think Arizona is the best team in the country. Houston hasn’t beaten a team like this all year. This line is very small. I don’t expect a 20-point blowout, but I do think Arizona wins this one before the last few minutes. They just have more in the toolbox, and they already survived a tourney test against TCU.
- Arkansas +9.5
I have a hard time seeing Gonzaga lose this one. I’m not sure they make enough threes to pull this one out, especially given that Drew Timme and Chet Holgrem likely control the paint against an undersized Razorbacks team. But Arkansas is really dang good. They went 6-1 against Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, and LSU this year. JD Notae is due for a breakout game. They aren’t going to go down easy here, and this is a pretty big line.
- Texas Tech PK (-110)
I’m on Tech here. Have them in my bracket, like Arizona and the Zags. I have them in my Final Four. I trust them more here. They’ll be able to play at their pace, score efficiently enough, and frustrate a Duke team that just doesn’t have a whole lot of experience or toughness. Coach K’s career ends on a Thursday in March.
- Michigan +180
Hey…Go Blue baby.
NIT record: 7-6 ATS (2-3 Underdog ML)
NBA/CBB PARLAYS: 7-18
Let’s have a Thursday.