Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #332

3 min read

Happy Friday. We kept it rolling yesterday with a 3-0 night. Both the Grizzlies and Warriors took care of business as slight road favorites, though that description doesn’t really do either game justice. The Grizzlies came back from two separate 25-point deficits to reclaim home court advantage, and the Warriors fought off the Nuggets late to leave Denver’s season hanging on the thinnest of threads. The Mavs covered in much less dramatic fashion, winning rather comfortably as nearly double digit dogs to go up 2-1 in Utah. In any caae, I’m hot. We’re up to 15-5 on playoff picks so far. Let’s find some more winners tonight.


NBA record: 226-204-8 ATS (22-38 Underdog ML), 13-16-1 O/U, 5-8 parlay, 0-2 props

  • Hawks +110

I like Atlanta here. This has nothing to do with the Heat. They’re playing really well. They gave the Hawks nothing in Game 1 defensively, and they’ve had guys step up with big games on the other end both times out – Duncan Robinson in Game 1 and Jimmy Butler in Game 2. Bam Adebayo hasn’t even done much of anything from an offensive production standpoint so far, and Tyler Herro has been limited too. Miami is going to win this series, and it will probably be in five games. But I’m riding with the Hawks here because of Trae Young. He’s 11-32 from the field and 2-17 from three so far in this series. At some point, he’s going to have a massive game. You don’t keep someone of this offensive quality down four games in a row. And this is a good set-up for that game to happen – the return trip home with the series on the line. I like a big Young game to lift Atlanta to their first win of the first round tonight.

  • Bucks -3

The Bucks are simply significantly better than the Bulls. Chicago was 11th in the East in net rating this year. The gap is larger than Khris Middleton, no matter how good he can be at his best. This is a Milwaukee team that survived the last few games of the ECF without Giannis last year. They can win a few first round games without Khris. There’s also this –

Outside of Giannis and Brook Lopez, the Bucks have really struggled in these opening two games. They’re going to need to be better. But they’re getting past Chicago regardless.

  • Suns -2.5

I’ve talked a lot about how much I like the Pelicans. With Devin Booker out, I think they can take at least another game in this series. But I don’t see them winning tonight. They won’t shoot 57% from three like they did in Game 2 very often. And Phoenix is going to be ready to go. This is a dang good team, and they’ll be ready to step up in the absence of Booker. They’ve been hearing the noise the last few days. It gets a little quieter after tonight.

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