Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #334

3 min read

Happy Sunday. We kept it rolling yesterday with a 3-1 day. The Raptors and Celtics gave us two outright dog winners, as the Raps held off a Sixers sweep and the Celtics moved within a game of sending the Nets home without a playoff win. The Mavs also covered despite a one-point loss that has their series with the Jazz tied at 2-2 and heading back to Dallas. Then the Grizzlies fell a little short, losing by one as one-possession favorites to give us a loss to close out the night. We’ll always take a 3-1 day though, and the playoff record is now 21-7. I’d say that’s alright. Let’s find some more winners today.


NBA record: 232-206-8 ATS (25-38 Underdog ML), 13-16-1 O/U, 5-8 parlay, 0-2 props

  • Bucks -4.5

Like I said two days ago, the Bucks are simply significantly better than the Bulls. They absolutely smothered Chicago in Game 3, winning by 30 despite shooting rather unspectacularly from the field (47.3%) and three (36.6%). They have the best defensive rating in the playoffs by about ten points. They’re taking this game and wrapping this thing up in Milwaukee on Wednesday.

  • Warriors -4.5

The Warriors won’t need to wait until Wednesday to end their series. Denver gave them everything they had in Game 3. They shot 50% from the floor and 42% from three. Jokic went for 37, 18, and 5. They made 22 of 27 free throws. They out rebounded Golden State by 14, including an 11-3 advantage on the offensive glass. They scored more points in the paint, winning that battle 46-40. And they still lost because they just can’t stop the Warriors. Denver just isn’t good enough. Golden State secures the sweep in comfortable fashion tonight.

  • Hawks +105

I’m gonna go for it. Atlanta won in Game 3 despite giving up a massive, should-have-been-soul-crushing run in the second half. They did it despite getting another inefficient shooting night from Trae Young, who went 2-6 from three. He’s now 4-23 from deep in this series. At some point, those threes are going to fall. The loss of Kyle Lowry is huge for Miami too. His counting stats aren’t insane, but his impact matters. The Heat are about 2 points worse per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench. Miami was also absurdly bad defensively in Tyler Herro’s minutes the other night; the man was a -21 despite scoring 24 points and dishing out 4 assists just on his own. Miami was +20 in the other 14 minutes of the game. At home, I like the Hawks to really make this a series.

  • Pelicans +115

I’ve talked a lot about how much I like the Pelicans. They’re a solid team when healthy (even minus Zion), and they were impressive in Game 3. Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum are ready for the moment. Phoenix probably won’t shoot 4-26 from three very often, but they also probably won’t win the points in the paint battle by 25+ all that often either. I like Ingram and McCollum to keep scoring around 30 each more than I do Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton too. The Suns still have the edge in this series, but I think New Orleans can take this game.

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