Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #412

6 min read

Happy Friday. We’re still hot. The NBA record was 3-0, and we’ve gone up almost 15 units in the NBA over the last week to help the clawing up process. We’re back to .500 ATS and have gone slightly over .500 on totals. Unfortunately, 55% or so is positive in Vegas, but we’re trending up. The CBB record was 5-4-1, and we’re within a unit of being positive on the year there. Let’s keep it going tonight. But first, a look at yesterday’s action…


There weren’t a whole lot of surprises in the NBA last night…

  • The Grizzlies went into Orlando and won, covering the spread by a point after the Magic almost got in the backdoor with a solid fourth quarter. Jaren Jackson, Ja Morant, and Paolo Banchero all scored at least 30 points.
  • The Celtics blew out the Mavs in Dallas. The margin of victory was perhaps a surprise, but Boston is really good at their best. Dallas lacks depth, a theme we’ve been talking about all season, and that can make games like this a little more likely too. When it rains, it pours. Jayson Tatum dropped a 29/10/14 triple-double, the second of his regular season career.
  • Lauri Markkanen dropped 49 to spark the Jazz to a much-needed win over the Rockets. That breaks a five-game losing streak and keeps a game of separation between Utah and the 11 seed Timberwolves.
  • The Nuggets crushed the Clippers in Denver. No Clipper starter played more than 18 minutes. LA has just half a game of space from the play-in, where Portland, Golden State, and Phoenix are all tied for the 7 seed.


  • Purdue outlasted Ohio State in a really close game in Columbus. That’s a dang good win for the Boilermakers, who avoid a two-loss week. It’s a missed opportunity to some degree for the Buckeyes. This could have moved them up various leaderboards. But they’re not in a spot where they need every big win they can get. They can battle with Purdue and feel good about it regardless of outcome.
  • Arizona didn’t beat Washington by much, but they did win. Washington got a lot closer this time, but they’ll still fall to 9-7 (1-4). This is not a team that’s going to be competing for one of the Pac 12’s few at-large bids.
  • San Francisco almost pulled off a huge win over Gonzaga that could have given their season another shot after a tough start to conference play. They led by 10 at half, but the game, and likely any at-large hopes, went down the drain in a 29-41 half.
  • UCLA held off USC despite a second half that saw them score just 16 points. The Bruins are 5-0 in Pac 12 play now. USC might need a win over UCLA or Arizona at some point. The Pac 12 is just so weak.
  • Iowa dropped 51 in the second half to overcome a double digit deficit and knock off Indiana. That’s a huge win for the Hawkeyes after their 0-3 start to conference play. Indiana is just 3-4 over their last seven games.
  • UMass Lowell is 14-2 (2-0) after holding off Maine. They’ve won those two conference games by a combined 5 points, so you’d have to imagine there are some losses coming here. Their last five wins have come by single digits. They absolutely don’t (and won’t) have the quality wins to make up for many losses here either. But with Rutgers (good) and Rhode Island (not great but at least not terrible) being the only losses, there’s at least a path here where they win out or close to it and have something to hope for on Selection Sunday regardless of their conference tournament fate.
  • Rutgers got past Maryland. Rutgers is really good, and they’re well on their way to a bid. Maryland is in some trouble after five losses in seven games. They have a huge opportunity to turn things around when Ohio State comes to town this weekend.
  • Florida Atlantic is 13-1 after edging past UAB. That’s wins over both North Texas and UAB so far in conference play. Things are looking really good for FAU. They’re 12th in NET. North Texas (39 after a nice win over Western Kentucky) and UAB (53) will still have their shot at earning at-large bids too.
  • Sam Houston State had a chance to get to 12-3 (2-1), but they gave up a lead and eventually fell to Grand Canyon in OT. The WAC is once again looking like a one-bid league despite the quality of its teams.
  • Arizona State ended a two-game losing streak with a much-needed win over Washington State. ASU is in a good spot to go dancing, but they’ll need to win games like this consistently down the stretch. Nothing is locked up yet.
  • Colorado crushed Oregon. I can’t imagine either team ends up with a good enough resume to get in, but this was a point for Colorado if they do end up in a spot to take advantage.
  • Utah moved to 12-4 (4-0) with a smashing of Oregon State. Arizona and UCLA will make the tourney with ease, and Arizona State and Utah are the best contenders outside of those two with USC perhaps not far behind.
  • Santa Clara is 14-4 (2-1) after beating Pepperdine. They need to keep winning, especially the games they should win like this one.
  • BYU had a good chance to build on their recent momentum, but they fell on the road to Loyola Marymount. LMU isn’t bad, but this is the kind of win you need to have as a bubble WCC team. BYU fell short.


NBA record: 74-74-2 ATS, 19-23 ML, 16-14-1 O/U, 1-6 parlay, 0-1 props, -15.90 units

  • Knicks ML (+148)

The Knicks have done really well on the road (11-8), and Toronto has been sliding for weeks. I like New York at plus odds here.

  • Sixers -4.5

The Sixers are good enough to cover this line at home. Chicago is playing a little better, but I’ll take Philly and the points here.

  • Sixers Bulls U231.5

The Sixers play slow and score about 220 per game. At home, I like them to control the pace and keep this one under.

  • Bucks -10

Going into Milwaukee is a tough ask for the Hornets.

  • Pistons Spurs O236.5

Both of these teams give up so many points, and they’re both in the top half of the league in pace. I think they get all the way to 237 and beyond tonight.

  • Thunder Wizards O231.5

The Thunder are third in the league in pace and average more than 233 per game. The Wizards play a little slower, but I like this one to turn into a track meet in OKC.

  • Nets -4

With both Zion and BI out, I think the Nets bounce back and get back to their winning ways here.

  • Nets Pelicans U231

The Nets don’t play very fast, and the Pelicans are down their two best scorers. I don’t think this one gets there.

  • Heat -2

I like the Heat here. The Suns are struggling heavily with Booker out, and Miami has been playing pretty well.

  • Lakers Hawks U242

Welcome back to our system play – we take the under when it’s over 240.

CBB record: 60-57-2 ATS, 8-13 ML, 4-2 O/U, 4-3 parlay, -0.8 units

  • Western Michigan +16

WMU has lost at Iowa State by 16, at Wisconsin by 10, and at Kent State by 8 in the last few weeks. I don’t see Toledo blowing them out here. The Rockets haven’t been off to the most convincing start themselves.

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