Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #421

3 min read

Happy Sunday. Yesterday was a negative day, but it wasn’t a complete train wreck. The NBA record was 3-4. The CBB record was 8-11 with some very close calls, especially on Miami and West Virginia early in the day. The final result was ultimately about 3-4 units down, which isn’t too bad. We’ll bounce back today. But first, a look at yesterday’s action.


  • The Heat beat the depleted Bucks again. Milwaukee is all the way back to four and a half games back of the Celtics, and they have just a half game advantage over the Sixers and Cavs. Staying in that top three and avoiding one of the East’s seemingly clear top five teams in the first round might end up being a huge difference maker in the playoffs. Miami has won three in a row and is keeping pace with the Knicks at half a game back of New York and the 6 seed. They’ve been much better lately.
  • The Celtics rolled the Hornets in Charlotte to increase their lead at the top of the East to 3.5 games.
  • The Grizzlies went into Indiana and won big. That puts them back into a tie with the Nuggets at the top of the West. The Pacers have lost three in a row, and they’ve fallen from 6 to 8 because of it.
  • The Hawks picked up a nice road win in Toronto. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray combined for 56. Atlanta has stabilized to some degree this week, and they sit two games above the Raptors and Bulls in the 9 seed. A loss would have dropped them into a three-way tie, so this one mattered.
  • The Timberwolves played a great fourth quarter to knock off the Cavs. Minnesota has been playing some good basketball, and they are, for now, tied for the 6 seed in an ugly looking middle of the West.
  • Jordan Clarkson dropped 38, and the Jazz almost beat the Sixers without Lauri Markkanen. Utah is still right in the middle of the pack out West, where two games separate the 6 seed from the 13 seed. The win helps the Sixers maintain close contact with the Cavs and Bucks.
  • Dallas was blown out in Portland. This was a solid win for the Blazers, who are also right in the thick of things out West. The Mavs and Kings have some separation in the 4-5 zone, but Dallas now stands just two games above the 6 seed.


We’ll do a full weekend recap (Fri-Sun) tomorrow.


NBA record: 90-84-3 ATS, 22-28 ML, 29-28-1 O/U, 1-6 parlay, 0-1 props, -15.30 units

  • Knicks Pistons O225.5

The Knicks average about 225 points per game. The Pistons sit around 231. Give me points here.

  • Thunder +5

The Thunder are playing well, and I’m thinking the Nets are going to be well worth fading with KD out.

  • Kings -7

The Spurs are not good.

  • Kings Spurs O246.5

This is a ridiculous total, but give me the over. Both teams play really fast and don’t play defense.

  • Mavericks +6.5

It’s generally a good idea to play the team that lost the night before on back-to-back mini series. I think Dallas bounces back and keeps this one close. It’s hard to beat the same team two nights in a row.

  • Sixers -3

Philly is playing pretty well, and this is a small line against the Lakers.

  • Bulls Warriors O238

The Warriors score and let up a ton of points (234 per game). Chicago doesn’t go very low either. Let’s get three under there tonight.

CBB record: 90-77-2 ATS, 13-21 ML, 4-3 O/U, 6-5 parlay, +5.25 units

  • Xavier -3

Marquette has a lot of momentum, but Xavier is really dang good. I think they cover and win this one at home.

  • Michigan -4.5

Michigan’s season is on the ropes after an awful blown game against Iowa the other day. It’s put up or shut up time. I still have a little bit of faith in this team.

  • Rutgers -3

The RAC is a powerful place, and Ohio State has been scuffling lately.

  • Indiana State ML (+110)

Indiana State is good. I’ll take them at plus odds here.

  • Maryland +5.5

Iowa is very beatable. I’ll take Maryland to keep this one close. The line is a little big.

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