Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #429

6 min read

Happy Wednesday. Yesterday ended up being a slightly positive day, but it could have been so much better. The CBB record was 5-2, but one of the losses was a parlay that only lost because Kent State, a double digit favorite, lost outright. Then the NBA record was 1-2-1. The Bulls (-1.5) blew a 21-point lead. The Celtics (+158) blew a 10-point lead over the last nine minutes of the game. The Nuggets (-1) were up 16 at half, but they let the Pelicans get it all the way down to a 1-point game for a push. This was truly brutal stuff. Tonight we don’t see any of that happen. But first, a look at yesterday’s action…


  • The Bulls blew a massive lead to give the Pacers their first win since Tyrese Haliburton got hurt. Chicago would have passed the Pacers and moved into the 9 seed with a win, so this one is just really tough. You can’t lose that game when you go up big early. Indiana will hold onto the 9 seed for now. The Bulls sit a game back and hold a one-game lead over the 11 seed Wizards.
  • The Knicks held off the Cavs in a low-scoring game in MSG. The Cavs got 70 from Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen, but it was Julius Randle’s 36-point night that stole the show. New York will keep pace with the Heat, as they still sit a game back of the 6 seed. Cleveland is 4-6 over their last ten, and they’ve slipped a game and a half back of the East’s top 4. They’re only two games up on the Heat after last night.
  • In a game missing Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, and more, the Heat took advantage of a cold Boston team in the fourth to turn a double-digit deficit into a win. Jayson Tatum and Bam Adebayo both dropped 30. Miami will keep its hold on the 6 seed for another night. Boston sees their lead at the top of the East shrink to three and a half games after two straight losses.
  • Nikola Jokic produced another triple-double, and the Nuggets just barely held on in New Orleans. The Pelicans are still without BI and Zion, and they’ve lost five in a row to fall just a game ahead of the 5 seed Clippers and the jumbled mess that is the middle of the West. Ingram returns tonight, but Williamson remains out. The Nuggets, meanwhile, have very quickly turned a deadlock with the Grizzlies into a two and a half game lead at the top of the West. They’re as hot as anyone in the league.
  • Kyle Kuzma dropped 30, and the Wizards won in Dallas despite a 41-point effort from Luka. The Mavs are 3-7 in their last 10, and they’ve completed the path the Pelicans are currently on, sliding all the way into the thick of the middle of the West. They’re in a two-way tie for the 6 seed and just two games up on the 12 seed. The Wizards are just a game out of the East play-in, and you would think they have a real shot at making it if they could just get their three best players on the court at the same time. Kyle Kuzma has played 46 of 47 games, and Kristaps Porzingis has only missed six. But Bradley Beal has barely played in half of Washington’s games, and the Wizards have only had all three in just over 20 of 47 chances so far.
  • The Suns smacked the Hornets. Phoenix has won four in a row to turn what had been a free fall without Devin Booker into a stagnation. They’re doing just fine.
  • LeBron dropped 46 and garnered the headlines, but the Clippers will be alright with taking the blowout win. AD will be back soon, and the Lakers need him. They’re still very alive in a cramped West, but they’re also all the way down in the 13 seed. The Clippers have sole possession of the 5 seed after three straight wins.


  • We have a three-way tie at the top of the Big 12 after Texas took care of business against Oklahoma State while Iowa State held off Kansas State in Ames. All three are 6-2 in conference play, and I don’t have anything but good things to say about all three. The race for a conference crown and tourney seeding is on, and Kansas, Baylor, and TCU are looming too. For Oklahoma State, it’s another loss to fall to 11-9 (3-5). That’s simply not good enough. They’ll need to win a few more games down the stretch to have a shot at dancing.
  • TCU smashed Oklahoma to pull within a game of the Big 12 lead. OU is now 2-6 in conference play, and they’re in deep trouble.
  • Miami crushed Florida State to move to 16-4 (7-3). I really like Miami. Don’t forget that they’re coming off an Elite 8 run.
  • Clemson blew out Georgia Tech, and they will stay atop the ACC at 9-1.
  • Rutgers smacked Penn State in the RAC. It was a smack in the RAC. The Scarlet Knights are really good. Penn State, meanwhile, is playing with a little bit of fire at 13-7 (4-5). Michigan comes to town on Saturday. That’s a home game you don’t want to drop.
  • NC State is 16-5 (6-4) after sneaking past Notre Dame and avoiding a bad loss.
  • Georgetown’s 29-game Big East losing streak is finally over after a win over DePaul, which might be enough to buy Patrick Ewing another three years.
  • Illinois took care of Ohio State at home for their fifth Big Ten win in six tries. Ohio State is in real trouble at 11-9 (3-6). They’re probably in the worst tourney position of anyone in the Big Ten outside of Minnesota and Nebraska (their losses to Minnesota and Nebraska may or may not have quite a bit to do with their current predicament). The wins need to start coming.
  • Arkansas KO’d LSU (I’m running out of words for teams winning by a lot of points here). LSU is awful. They’re 1-7 in SEC play. You knew someone that did really well in non-con was going to struggle once the schedule flipped in the SEC, and it’s certainly been them. It’s also been Arkansas. 14-6 (3-5) isn’t the prettiest thing in the world. But the Razorbacks have at least flipped the momentum a bit with a few wins here.
  • Missouri handled Ole Miss on the road to improve to 15-5 (4-4). They should be fine for an at-large bid at this rate, but it’s still rather difficult to tell how good this team is.
  • 16-3 Kent State lost to 7-12 Northern Illinois despite leading at halftime. Am I bitter? Yes.
  • North Carolina held off Syracuse on the road. UNC should be set for a tourney bid. They’re sitting pretty right now at least a bit above the cut line. Syracuse will be an interesting team. They’re 13-8 (6-4) but also have zero quality wins. They could conceivably finish something like 19-12 (12-8) with very few quality wins. What does the selection committee do with that? (We all know the answer is stick them in the First Four and watch them go the Sweet 16 but let’s carry out the thought exercise anyway).
  • Kentucky has won four in a row after blowing past Vandy. They deserve a lot of credit. They’ve rebounded really nicely after the loss to South Carolina.
  • Boise State took care of business against Fresno State to keep the train chugging along. They’re 16-5.


NBA record: 108-97-3 ATS, 22-33 ML, 40-38-1 O/U, 1-6 parlay, 0-1 props, -16.42 units

  • Magic -5.5
  • Sixers -6
  • Nets Sixers O225
  • Thunder ML (+100)
  • Nuggets +10
  • Wizards -2
  • Grizzlies ML (+143)
  • Jazz ML (+143)
  • Kings -3
  • Raptors Kings U238
  • Spurs Lakers O243.5
  • Jazz Blazers U239.5

CBB record: 112-96-2 ATS, 16-29 ML, 4-3 O/U, 7-8 parlay, +2.30 units

  • ML LAY: VCU, Dayton, Providence, Alabama, Indiana, Creighton (+180)

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