Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #481

5 min read

Happy Friday. The NBA record was an underwhelming 1-2-1 yesterday, but we had a massive night in college ball, going 5-0. That included a hit on FAU ML (+210). It’s always been the Owls. Let’s keep it rolling tonight, but first, let’s take a look at last night’s action…


  • Julius Randle, Immanuel Quickley, and Quentin Grimes all scored at least 23 points, but the Knicks fell short in Orlando without Jalen Brunson. Paolo Banchero led the Magic with 21. The Knicks see their lead over the 6 seed (now the Heat) shrink to a game and a half. This makes for three losses in a row; they need to bounce back against the Rockets on Monday. Orlando is still four games out of the play-in after the win. They’re going to need to go at least 6-2 over their final eight games and hope things fall their way.
  • Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley combined for 57, and the Cavs hung tough in Brooklyn before pulling it out in the last second –

Cleveland could finish 3-4 and still finish with the 4 seed regardless of what the Knicks do. That’s pretty likely with the Rockets, Hornets, and Magic (twice) all still on the schedule. The Cavs have all but locked up first round home court advantage. The question is whether they can still chase the top three. Technically, the answer is yes, but there’s a lot of work to do there with three and a half games separating them from the Sixers. This one was a real bummer for the Nets. They really could have used the win, and they just about had it. They fall half a game back of the Heat and suddenly are down in the 7 seed. They do have an extra game to play, so they’re still tied with the Heat in the loss column. But they’re going to be in a dogfight for that last guaranteed playoff spot. Tomorrow’s trip to Miami is massive, though it won’t change the tiebreaker, which already belongs to Brooklyn.

  • Brandon Ingram dropped a 30-point triple-double, Jonas Valanciunas was one rebound away from a 20-20 game, and the Pels had very few issues with the Hornets in New Orleans. They’re in a four-way tie (!!!) for the 8 seed out West, and both the 7 seed Timberwolves and 12 seed Jazz are tied with all four teams in the loss column. There are 6 Western Conference teams with 37 losses right now. And then there’s the Warriors (36), Clippers (35), and Suns (34). It’s going to be one heck of a finish out West. The Hornets are still three and a half games ahead of the Spurs, and they’re close to being locked in to that fourth-worst record.
  • The Clippers got revenge on the Thunder, blowing them out two days after losing a close one to them. SGA dropped 30 again, but he was topped by Kawhi’s 32-point showing last night. The Clips also got some good news with Paul George, who may only end up being out a few weeks after he injured his knee Tuesday night. It looked worse than that. The Clips are tied for the West 4 seed with the Suns, a game ahead of the Warriors. The Thunder are in the four-way tie for the 8 seed.


  • Kansas State and Michigan State both played fantastic games, but there ended up being just a little too much Markquis Nowell (20 points, 19 assists) for the Spartans to handle in an OT loss. It’s been a heck of a turnaround in year one under Jerome Tang after the Bruce Weber era fizzled out with three consecutive under .500 seasons, and the Cats have a real shot at the Final Four. Losing a game when you do so many things well will sting for Michigan State, but they ended their season about as valiantly as you can outside of winning it all.
  • Florida Atlantic will face KSU in the Elite 8 after a big second half run got them past Tennessee. This shouldn’t be a surprise. FAU has been fantastic all season. They ran through a tough C-USA conference and handled really good teams in North Texas and UAB along the way. I had them in the Elite 8, and I said the other week that they should have been seeded much higher.
Ignore the Oral Roberts part

So it shouldn’t be much of a shock that they beat a team like Tennessee, who continues to see their offense be a significant issue in March. Only one game in the Sweet 16 or beyond had a winner with less than 60 points in last year’s tourney (Nova over Houston in the Elite 8). There was also just one such game in 2021 (UCLA over Michigan), 2019 (Virginia over Oregon), and 2018 (Michigan over FSU) – and zero such games in 2017, 2016, 2015, and 2014. 60 is obviously a somewhat arbitrary cutoff, but it’s one the Vols failed to meet in two of three games this tournament. They didn’t exactly light up Duke either with 65 in the second round. They need to find ways to score more points in March.

  • UConn smashed Arkansas for their third consecutive double digit win to open the tourney. The last time they won three or more straight by 10+? December 20, when their 84-73 win over Georgetown gave them thirteen straight double digit wins to open the season. They were considered the best team at the country at the time. Are we getting back to that after an uneven Big East run? For Arkansas, the blowout will hurt, but this was still a really good tournament showing for them. The Muss Bus rolls on.
  • UConn will face Gonzaga in the Elite 8 after the Zags won a wild one over UCLA. The Bruins got off to the better start with 46 first half points against a struggling Gonzaga defense. But the game flipped completely in the second half, and they went ice cold while the Zags rushed back. It looked like Gonzaga would win comfortably in the final few minutes, but they managed to give UCLA every shot to get back in it. And the Bruins took advantage, hitting a big three to go up one late. But Julian Strawther answered with a huge three on the other end, and the UCLA turnover that followed all but ended the game. UCLA will be disappointed to see a season with legitimate national title hopes end with Pac 12 tourney injuries to two key players and then a loss in the Sweet 16, and there’s no great way to sugarcoat that. This one will hurt. But the program is in a significantly better place four years into the Mick Cronin era, and there’s plenty of reason to hope that continues into the next four years.


NBA record: 195-167-7 ATS, 31-57 ML, 102-82-3 O/U, 1-9 parlay, 0-1 props, -13.22 units

  • Hornets +14.5
  • Bucks -9.5
  • Sixers +5.5
  • Bulls -2.5
  • Suns Kings U239
  • Thunder +5.5
  • Thunder Lakers O232.5

CBB record: 251-225-12 ATS, 55-82 ML, 5-4 O/U, 16-25 parlay, -16.63 units

CBB regular season record: 198-181-8 ATS, 47-75 ML, 4-4 O/U, 12-24 parlay, -30.85 units

CBB conference tourney record: 34-31-4 ATS, 7-10 ML, 0-0 O/U, 4-3 parlay, + 5.87 units

NIT record: 4-4 ATS, 0-0 ML, 0-0 parlay, -0.4 units

NCAA Tourney record: 15-9 ATS, 6-6 ML, 1-0 O/U, 0-0 parlay, +8.75 units

  • Miami +7.5
  • Miami Houston U139.5
  • Xavier +4.5
  • Alabama -7.5
  • Princeton +10


Record: 11-21 (10 losses in title game)

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