Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #503

4 min read

Happy Wednesday. Yesterday was a 2-4 day. Not my best effort. I was 0-3 ATS, though the Hawks and Clippers were at least reasonably close. We’ll bounce back today. But first, let’s take a quick look at yesterday’s action and then a few things to look for tonight…

  • Celtics 119, Hawks 106 (Celtics 2-0)

Derrick White scored 26 in Game 2, and the Celtics had another fairly easy win, even if they didn’t go into the half up 30 this time around. Trae Young continued to struggle for Atlanta, shooting 9-22 from the floor and 2-8 from three. If they have a shot at making this remotely competitive, it starts with getting some more efficient outings from him. Dejounte Murray has been Atlanta’s best offensive player so far, which isn’t the plan. The bright side for the Hawks is that they probably won’t shoot about 10% worse from the field that the Celtics in every game for this series, as they have in the first two. Those splits are to some degree a measure of team quality (which is very clearly in favor of Boston), but Atlanta has to get hot at some point. It might win them a game. The paint was another big problem yesterday; after a 54-54 tie in paint points in Game 1, Boston won that battle 64-40 last night. The Celtics are going to win this series. They’re very likely going to win it in five or less. The only question is likely whether they can execute the sweep in Atlanta.

  • Cavs 107, Knicks 90 (1-1)

The Cavs were down 4-12 about five minutes into the game. It was 25-22 by the end of the first quarter, and they never looked back from there. The second quarter was 34-17 in their favor, which all but ended the game by halftime. This was an ugly shooting game for the Knicks. They were 7-29 from three, leading to a 24-point deficit from beyond the arc (Cleveland shot fairly well at 42%). They were 22-50 on twos, making two less shots in six more attempts. Caris LeVert was massive in this one, scoring 24 points off the bench for the Cavs. Getting that kind of performance from someone outside of Mitchell/Garland is going to be big moving forward. But the Knicks will be perfectly happy seeing this thing all knotted up as we head to MSG for Games 3 and 4.

  • Suns 123, Clippers 109 (1-1)

The Clippers started strong but failed to sustain it in a Game 2 loss that ties the series up. Like the Knicks, they’ll be just fine with taking one of two games on the road to open things. This was just one of those nights for the Suns offense. Torrey Craig was 5-8 from three, and Kevin Durant and Devin Booker combined to shoot 20-30 (66.7%) on twos. If you add Chris Paul to that mix, it’s 28-43 (65.1%). That’s a group of performances that will win you a lot of games. How many games per series are they going to be able to get that type of across-the-board offensive performance going though? That might be the question that defines their postseason run.


  • Ja Morant is not playing as the Grizzlies face what is essentially a must-win game against the Lakers. Memphis has had plenty of success playing without Morant the last two years. Seeing some regression to the mean from Rui Hachimura might be enough to give them a win tonight. There’s plenty of reason to think they can get it done.
  • The Bucks take on the Heat, hoping to tie things up at 1-1 before the series heads to Miami. There’s still no declaration on Giannis. I would guess he plays. Regardless, I would guess we see the offensively-challenged Heat fall back to Earth after their Game 1 high. The Bucks should win this one.
  • The Timberwolves will look to produce a performance that provides some hope for the rest of the series. This isn’t a true must-win with three home games remaining, but another blowout would all but end things mentally. KAT will need to be much, much better tonight.


NBA record: 234-207-7 ATS, 33-69 ML, 124-99-3 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, -26.88 units

NBA regular season record: 225-198-7 ATS, 32-67 ML, 116-90-3 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, -23.62 units

NBA postseason record 9-9 ATS, 1-2 ML, 8-8 O/U, 0-0 parlay, 0-0 series price, -3.26 units

  • Grizzlies ML (-105)
  • Grizzlies Lakers U223
  • Bucks -8
  • Bucks Heat O220
  • Timberwolves +8.5
  • Timberwolves Nuggets O222.5


  • Kings to win series (+225)
  • Grizzlies to win series (-145) – THREE UNIT PLAY

CBB record: 254-229-12 ATS, 57-83 ML, 5-5 O/U, 17-25 parlay, -9.83 units

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