Mike Bets #529

Happy Sunday. Yesterday was a 1-0 day with the Nuggets covering pretty easily as they took a 3-0 WCF lead in Los Angeles. Let’s take that momentum and try to build on it tonight when the Heat look to follow Denver in taking a 3-0 lead. But first, let’s take a quick look at last night’s action…

• Nuggets 119, Lakers 108 (Nuggets lead 3-0)

The Nuggets punched first and last on their way to a 3-0 series lead. It was 35-23 Denver after the first quarter, and they closed the game on a 36-26 run that turned a one-point game in the final minute of the third quarter into a double digit win by the end of the fourth. The Jamal Murray Show was back in studio during a 30-point first half for Murray, who scored more than half of the team’s points in the first twenty-four minutes. Then it was everyone else’s turn in the second half with Jokic, MPJ, KCP, and Bruce Brown all stepping up. There’s simply no question of who the better team is here. Denver shot better, won the turnover battle, and won comfortably despite losing the paint and going -8 on free throws in a game that might have been refereed in a way that titled towards the Lakers. The series is over. It’s only a question of how many more games the Lakers will survive for. They’re only guaranteed the next one.

Losing to the 1 seed shouldn’t feel like the end of the world in LA. This team making the conference finals is aflat-out success. Their third and fourth best playoff players have been Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. LeBron doesn’t have the next level boost that you need to truly take over playoff games consistently. I’m not sure AD has ever been at that level. This would have been a shocking Finals team, and they’ve finally met their match in the conference finals. There’s no shame in that. There are plenty of questions about the future given LeBron’s age and AD’s ceiling, but we have at least one more game before we have to start asking those.

SERIES PREDICTIONS VS ACTUAL OUTCOMES

✅✅✅ = right team, right number of games

✅✅ = right team, one game off

✅ = right team

❌ = wrong team

First round tally: 4-4 on team picks, 2 within a game 

Second round tally: 2-2 on team picks, 1 exactly right on games

Conference Finals

Nuggets in 6 (Grizzlies > Nuggets original pick) 

Heat in 7 (Bucks > Celtics original pick)

TODAY’S PLAYS

NBA record: 254-217-8 ATS, 34-80 ML, 138-111-5 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-2 props, 0-2 series price -37.80 units

NBA regular season record: 225-198-7 ATS, 32-67 ML, 116-90-3 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, -23.62 units

NBA postseason record: 29-19-1 ATS, 2-13 ML, 22-20-2 O/U, 0-1 props, 0-2 series price, -14.18 units

• Heat ML (+159)

• Heat Celtics U214

SERIES BETS

• Nuggets -165 – THREE UNIT PLAY
• Heat +420

CBB record: 254-229-12 ATS, 57-83 ML, 5-5 O/U, 17-25 parlay, -9.83 units