Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #530

3 min read

Happy Monday. Yesterday was another 1-1 day, but this time we were positive with the Heat winning outright. The under didn’t hit for the third time in a row in the ECF, but we’ll get ’em next time. Let’s keep the positive momentum going tonight. But first, let’s take a look at last night’s action…

  • Heat 128, Celtics 102 (Heat lead 3-0)

The Heat were awesome last night. In a game that the Celtics needed and they didn’t, they were the aggressors from start to finish. You would think the Celtics were the ones up 2-0 heading to Miami having watched the intensity differences in last night’s game. Gabe Vincent had an incredible night, making 6 of 9 threes and all 5 of his two-point attempts on the way to 29 points. Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin combined for 40 off the bench, shooting a total of 14-22 from the field and 9-14 from three. Martin was +34 last night and has just been sensational. Jimmy and Bam only made 9 combined shots, and Miami still rolled. This was as good of an effort as you will see. Props to the Heat, who will be playing in The Finals come June.

Words can’t do this one justice for the Celtics. This was flat-out embarrassing. Miami’s only win of 20+ points in the playoffs had been Game 3 of the Bucks series, when Milwaukee was both without Giannis and not down 0-2. It’s almost beyond belief that the Celtics lost this one by a larger margin than that. They were soft, weak, and just completely lost, and their season slipped completely out of their fingers because of it. Not a single player showed up last night. Tatum had 14 points on 18 shots. Brown had 12 on 17. Al Horford hit three shots and did absolutely nothing else in 19 minutes of action that saw Boston outscored by more than a point per minute. Marcus Smart was 2-8 from the floor. Malcolm Brogdon was awful, missing all six of his shots and going -23 in just 18 minutes. Joe Mazzulla is getting punked out there. Miami has been handily defeating teams all postseason, but we haven’t seen anything like this yet. There are plenty of off-season questions for the Celtics to answer, but we’ll save them until after their inevitable demise.


✅✅✅ = right team, right number of games

✅✅ = right team, one game off

✅ = right team

❌ = wrong team

First round tally: 4-4 on team picks, 2 within a game 

Second round tally: 2-2 on team picks, 1 exactly right on games

Conference Finals

Nuggets in 6 (Grizzlies > Nuggets original pick) 

Heat in 7 (Bucks > Celtics original pick)


NBA record: 254-217-8 ATS, 35-80 ML, 138-112-5 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-2 props, 0-2 series price -37.40 units

NBA regular season record: 225-198-7 ATS, 32-67 ML, 116-90-3 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, -23.62 units

NBA postseason record: 29-19-1 ATS, 3-13 ML, 22-21-2 O/U, 0-1 props, 0-2 series price, -13.78 units

  • Nuggets ML (+130)
  • Lakers Nuggets O224


  • Nuggets -165 – THREE UNIT PLAY
  • Heat +420

CBB record: 254-229-12 ATS, 57-83 ML, 5-5 O/U, 17-25 parlay, -9.83 units

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