Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #56

5 min read

Backs against the wall day did not go well. It turns out that simply saying you will hit your bets doesn’t mean all that much. All four parlays sunk and died a tragic death, largely at the hands of the Big Ten. Purdue didn’t cover against a Valpo team coming off a 16 point loss to Chicago-Illinois. Minnesota didn’t cover against a North Dakota team coming off a loss to Dixie State. Michigan State didn’t cover against a Detroit team playing their first game of the season. Throw in the Wisconsin loss, and it was a disastrous day for the Big Ten. Great teams cover, and I didn’t see any great teams out there last night.

Apologies to Maryland. I just remembered that they actually did their job yesterday. Unfortunately, it was early so I took a nap instead of betting on the game. That’s where I went wrong yesterday.

I was going to set up this whole B10 v. the world thing, but Maryland kind of ruined that. All I will say is this – Northwestern is at -32 today against an awful (awful) [awful] {awful} |awful| Chicago St team that is 0-4 with an average margin of defeat of 43.5. Their closest game was a 22 point loss to Eastern Illinois. If the Cats don’t cover, the B10 will have gone 5 non-conference games in a row without coverage. Can’t happen. Better not happen.

Let’s get to the picks:

College Basketball Record: 82-69-2 on individual bets, 4-25 on parlays, +167.00

All Involved CBB Picks: 120-95-5 ATS, 5-7 Dog MLs

  • Sacramento St (-12.5) v. Idaho

Sacramento St won the first of these two games against Idaho by 22. They get 9 points to play with here, and they should deliver.

  • The 1pm (Central Time) Parlay – $10 to win $106

Arizona (-12.5) v. Eastern Washington

Eastern hung with Washington St in their first game, but Arizona is a different animal. They’ll be playing their second game, and they continue to find their groove with a big win here.

Montana v. Southern Utah ML (+130)

Montana hasn’t looked fantastic this season. After losing to USC in a game that looked somewhat close (14 points) because of a decent second half, they lost to Southern Utah by 1 the other day. Southern hung with Loyola Marymount, who has put down some impressive performance so far, in their opener. I’m taking them to win this game again here.

Dayton v. SMU ML (+105)

Dayton is still adjusting to losing half of last year’s production. They barely snuck by Eastern Illinois in their opener. SMU has been lighting everyone up, dropping 90+ points in each game. It hasn’t come against great competition, but they’ve absolutely dominated the teams they’ve played. The Mustangs make a statement here.

Furman ML (-340) v. College of Charleston

Furman is a very good mid-major team. They should win this one rather easily. I just refuse to take the points right now so early in the season. Take the ML and toss it in a parlay.

The 2/3pm (Central Time) Parlay – $10 to win $90

Eastern Illinois (-5.5) v. Green Bay

EIU has lost to Wisconsin by 10, Marquette by 25, Dayton by 3, and Chicago St by -22 (that last one was actually a win). Green Bay has lost to Minnesota and Wisconsin by 30 and 40. If you’re losing to Wisconsin by 40 – with their style of play – you’re probably pretty dang bad. Don’t take UWGB here.

Kansas (-24.5) v. ND St

North Dakota St has actually been relatively competitive considering their 0-3 record and their opening slate (Nevada, Nebraska, Creighton). Still, they’ve lost by at least 10 each time out, and a game against the Jayhawks is never the answer for a team’s struggles. Kansas should roll.

Wright St v. Miami OH ML (+175)

Wright St really struggled in their opener. I like the value with Miami here.

  • Providence (-19.5) v. Fairleigh Dickinson

FDU is not good, and the Friars have some frustration to take out after a rough Maui Invitational in Asheville. Take Providence.

  • Arkansas v. Lipscomb (+17)

Lipscomb has played decent basketball so far, and Arkansas didn’t beat North Texas or UT Arlington by more than 17. I don’t think they do it here either.

  • Northwestern (-31.5) v. Chicago St

As I’ve covered, Chicago St is awful. The Big 10 needs you, Northwestern.

  • Houston (-9.5) v. South Carolina

Houston is 3-0 with double digit wins over Boise St and Texas Tech. Admittedly, double digit here means 10 and 11 points, respectively, but the point still stands. This is a great team, and they roll against a fine South Carolina team who has split games against Liberty and Tulsa.

  • Syracuse (-23.5) v. Rider

Rider hasn’t been bad recently, but they return less than 20% of last year’s team. This is their first game. Take Syracuse, who really found their groove last time out in their second game with a 75-45 thrashing of Niagara.

  • Pitt v. NIU (+15)

NIU is not good, but neither is Pitt. They’ve started 1-1 with games against St Francis (-10) and Drexel (+9). I cannot in good faith bet on them to cover 15 here.

  • OK St (-23.5) v. Oakland

Of course Oakland stepped up with an inspired performance against Michigan before dropping back to their usual ways against Purdue. Did I bet on them to cover against Purdue before their 50-93 loss? Absolutely. Never again.

  • Kansas St v. UNLV ML (+120)

This is quite the battle between two terrible big name teams. Kansas St is 1-2 and -24 on the year after games with Drake, Colorado, and UMKC, who they beat by just 4. UNLV is 0-4 and it hasn’t been pretty. They did, however, show some fight in coming back to make Davidson sweat the 7th place game down in Asheville. They carry that momentum over to this game and grab their first win.

  • BYU (PK) v. Utah St

Mike Bets is pro-BYU. They’re 3-1 for us so far, and they picked up a big win over St Johns (big because of importance not margin) the other day. That gives them the edge they need over Utah St, who played an up-and-down three games in an early tourney.

  • Abilene Christian (-15) v. Tarleton St

Abilene Christian is the greatest coverage machine in the history of basketball. Ride the ACU train with me.

  • Rice v. Houston Baptist (+9)

Rice is 3-0 against fluff, and Houston Baptist has played some really good teams despite their struggles. I like them here to keep it close.

  • St Louis (-33) v. Arkansas Pine Bluff

APB is a disaster. SLU is good. Good beats disaster by at least 34 in my book.

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