Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #64

3 min read

For the second time this week, I lost a parlay on the last leg when that last team fell a single point short of coverage. The first time it was Oklahoma winning by 4 on a -4.5 line. This time it was Oklahoma St winning by 3 on a -3.5 line. I’m beginning to notice a theme here. Don’t bet on Oklahoma teams as the last line of a parlay.

That disaster set the tone for an underwhelming day. I’m back under +$100 on the season, which means a big day is coming today. Because it’s Sunday, I’ll be adding to this throughout the day as the earlier results come in. Check in before a game, and I’ll have my pick up here if I have on that game. Let’s get to it.

College Basketball Record: 139-123-3 on individual bets, 4-36 on parlays, +$76.00

All Involved CBB Picks: 192-164-6 ATS, 17-18 Dog MLs


  • Michigan (-6) v. Penn State

The contractually obligated Michigan pick makes a lot of sense here. Michigan has won their last three games by an average of 20.3 points, and they’re averaging well over 80 points per game. Penn State has quietly gotten off to a very good start with a split against VCU and Seton Hall and a domination of Virginia Tech the other day, but Michigan scores enough to cover at home.

  • MSU (-24.5) v. Oakland

At some point, MSU is going to cover against a bad team. It’s going to happen, and the odds of it happening here are rather high. Oakland is no good, and they’re due for a bad game. They hung with Michigan three games ago and then lost to Purdue by 40. They sort of hung with Ok St last time out, so a big loss is coming.

  • Bowling Green (-1.5) v. Wright State

Bowling Green is averaging well over 80 points per game so far, and they’ve picked up wins over App State and Buffalo. They dealt with some adversity in those games as well, winning by single digits. Wright State, meanwhile, has split games with Marshall and Miami (OH). Neither game was decided by less than 15 points. This one might be closer, and that solidifies Bowling Green’s edge.

  • Western Kentucky v. Rhode Island (+5.5)

Rhode Island has played six higher level teams, and they split those games. They lost by single digits to ASU and BC, and they lost by a little more than 10 to Wisconsin last time out. In between, they rolled over Seton Hall, San Francisco, and South Florida. This is a good team, and they keep it close here at the very least against a Western Kentucky team that is suddenly struggling after a good start. They almost lost to Gardner Webb last time out, were destroyed by Louisville, and gave Mississippi Valley St its closest game of the year (they only won by 27). Take URI here.

  • West Virginia v. Richmond (+7)

This is a very good Richmond team that has now beaten Kentucky, Wofford, and Northern Iowa in consecutive games. West Virginia is 5-1, but all of their games have been decided by 12 points or less. I like this one to be really close.

  • The 1pm Central Parlay – $10 to win $154

Kent St (-5.5) v. Northern Kentucky

Loyola Chicago (-9.5) v. Illinois Chicago

Drake (-10.5) v. Air Force

Western Michigan v. UWM (+135)

  • Iowa (-30.5) v. Northern Illinois

Iowa is so dang good. NIU is not. Iowa has won four of five games by 25+, including a thrashing of Iowa St the other day. They’ve won every game by double digits. NIU has lost two of four by 20+. They’ve lost every game. Don’t pick NIU. Pick Iowa.

  • San Francisco (-3) v. Cal

Cal is coming off of three straight losses to ASU (8), UCLA (20), and Pepperdine (12). They also lost to Oregon St to open their season, and their only D1 win so far came against Nicholls State. They aren’t good, and San Fran has been. They’ve won five of six after a rough opening loss to UMass Lowell, and they make it six of seven without too many difficulties here.

  • 3pm Central Parlay – $10 to win $60

Ohio St (-24) v. Cleveland St

Boise St (-17.5) v. Weber St

Arizona St v. Grand Canyon (+8)

  • St Johns (PK) v. Georgetown – 2 UNIT PLAY ($22 to win $20)

Georgetown is dead after blowing +12.5 after being up by 13 at half their last time out. Pound St Johns.

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