Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #287

Happy Friday. The positive vibes are still rolling after yesterday, a 2-2 NBA and 8-4 CBB day with another parlay hit. This one was just +172, but a lay hit is a lay hit. We’ll always take it. It’s been a great week; let’s keep it rolling with some more winners tonight.

TODAY’S PLAYS

NBA record: 138-137-6 ATS (16-35 Underdog ML), 13-16-1 O/U, 4-6 parlay, 0-2 props

  • Clippers +110

The Clippers are better than the Lakers. They’re 18th in net rating to the Lakers’ 20th. 17th in SRS to the Lakers’ 21st. One and a half games ahead in both expected and actual record. It’s not a massive margin, but it’s a margin nonetheless. With AD out and LeBron questionable, don’t pass up on the chance to get the Clips at plus odds.

  • Mavs +5.5

Dallas won six of seven before the break and hasn’t lost by more than 6 points since January 25. They’re 6-3 since Kristaps Porzingis’s last game in a Mavs uniform. Utah has been playing better basketball lately, but the Jazz are still just 6-4 over their last ten. I like Dallas to keep this close with a relatively big line.

  • Sixers -3

The Timberwolves had to tough out a big win over the Grizzlies last night, and a back-to-back right after the All-Star break isn’t ideal. That’s especially true when Joel Embiid and James Harden are coming to town. We’ll see how quickly the Sixers gel, but this should be a decent first showing. Minnesota is good, but these circumstances aren’t.

  • Heat -5.5

The Knicks lost thirteen of sixteen before the break and simply aren’t very good. The Heat fell half a game back of the top of the East when the Bulls won, and they make that gap up tonight in a comfortable win.

CBB record: 256-276-5 ATS (38-40 Underdog ML), 7-19 parlay

  • Appalachian State +110

App State is 12-5 in Sun Belt play compared to Arkansas State’s 7-5, and they beat them by 7 earlier in the year. Four of their five Sun Belt losses came to teams above .500 in conference play, and the other came to 8-8 Louisiana. They’re the better team here, and I’ll take them at plus odds.

  • Iowa -12.5

Nebraska is quite bad at basketball. Football too, but that’s a story for another day. They’ve lost four of five by 12+ points. Iowa has won five of six by 12+ too with the exception being a loss to the absolute powerhouse that is the 2022 Michigan basketball team. This one shouldn’t be very close as Iowa keeps stacking wins for their resume.

  • San Diego State -21.5

San Jose State has played fifteen Mountain West games and lost fourteen of them. Six of those losses were by 20+. That’s enough to take a shot on a San Diego State team playing solid basketball right now as they gear up for March.

NBA/CBB PARLAYS: 4-11

  • PARLAY (ALL MLs): Heat, San Diego State, Iowa, Ohio, Iona, Princeton (+209)

Let’s have a day.

Michael Regan

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