Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #511

3 min read

Happy Friday. Yesterday was a 1-1 day with the Hawks losing by 8 to miss coverage by just a point (technically two with a +7 line but you get the idea). So we were very slightly negative yesterday. We’ll look to improve on that tonight, when the Kings and Grizzlies will both try to win key Game 6s to keep their seasons – and my series futures – alive. Let’s hope they don’t both lose. Before we get to the plays, let’s take a quick look at yesterday’s action…

  • Celtics 128, Hawks 120

The Celtics closed strong to finish off the Hawks, winning the fourth quarter 30-20 and going on a late 16-6 run. Both teams shot 42.9% from deep, but the Celtics made three more after taking seven more, and that might have been the difference in the game. Both teams made 29 twos. The Hawks made 17 free throws; the Celtics made 16. Neither team turned it over more than 10 times. The paint points battle was close, going 54-50 in favor of Boston. The one other thing that flipped this one was the transition game, where the Celtics had a massive 18-4 edge. They were ultimately just a little too good for Atlanta, which isn’t a surprise to anyone. Jayson Tatum was much more efficient than he was in Game 5, and his 30 points were a nice complement to Jaylen Brown’s 32. Atlanta should feel proud of their effort. Winning two games in this series was a job well done. And Trae certainly stepped up his scoring after the first two games. But his efficiency still leaves quite a bit to be desired, and there needs to be a solution. A really well-rounded team like the Celtics can handle an often inefficient best player like Tatum, who shot below 43.5% from the field in four of six games this series (and below 40% in two). His 45.3% FG% across the series as a whole simply isn’t good. But it is about 5% better than Trae’s, and Young has a much worse supporting cast around him (which isn’t even a knock on the Hawks as much as it’s an indication of how great Boston’s rotation is). Young scores a ton of points, but he also misses so many shots. Finding a way to miss a little less would make a huge difference.


✅✅✅ = right team, right number of games

✅✅ = right team, one game off

✅ = right team

❌ = wrong team

Bucks in 4 (Heat won 4-1) ❌

Cavs in 6 (Knicks won 4-1) ❌

Sixers in 5 (Sixers win in 4) ✅✅

Celtics in 4 (Celtics win in 6) ✅

Nuggets in 6 (Nuggets win in 5) ✅✅

Suns in 7 (Suns win in 5) ✅

Kings in 5 (Warriors lead 3-2)

Grizzlies in 5 (Lakers lead 3-2)

First round tally: 4-2 on team picks, 2 within a game


NBA record: 242-214-7 ATS, 33-76 ML, 132-102-4 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, -29.20 units

NBA regular season record: 225-198-7 ATS, 32-67 ML, 116-90-3 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, -23.62 units

NBA postseason record: 17-16 ATS, 1-9 ML, 16-11-1 O/U, 0-0 parlay, 0-0 series price, -5.58 units

  • Kings +7.5
  • Grizzlies +4.5
  • Grizzlies Lakers U220


  • Kings to win series (+225)
  • Grizzlies to win series (-145) – THREE UNIT PLAY

CBB record: 254-229-12 ATS, 57-83 ML, 5-5 O/U, 17-25 parlay, -9.83 units

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