Stat Padders

The Official Site of the Michigan Basketball Analytics Association

Mike Bets #512

3 min read

Happy Sunday. I ended up going 2-1 on individual plays Friday night, which was good. Unfortunately, my three-unit play on the Grizzlies winning the series lost, so it was technically a 2-2 day with a big loss. We’ll rebound today. But first, a quick catch-up on where we stand in the playoffs.

  • The Knicks and Heat start their second round series today. New York dominated the possession battle and played tough, winning basketball to roll past the Cavs despite some pretty underwhelming offensive production. Miami out-coached and out-hustled, aided by a monstrous offensive showing from Jimmy Butler and some elite shooting from a team that was near the bottom of the league during the regular season. The key question in this one – can the Heat keep playing this well offensively?
  • The Celtics and Sixers will start their series tomorrow after the Sixers swept the Nets and the Celtics were pushed to six games by the Hawks. Boston is the favorite; they’ve won this matchup recently and have the better rotation. Joel Embiid will likely miss part of the series too. There’s plenty of pressure on both teams; the Celtics let a golden opportunity at a title slip away last year and the Sixers have yet to reach the conference finals in the Embiid era. Someone is going to hear it when they lose.
  • The Kings and Warriors will close out their fantastic first round series today. The winner gets the Lakers in the second round. Golden State, one of the league’s worst road teams all year, will face an insane road environment in this Game 7 in front of a hungry Sacramento crowd. This should be an awesome game.
  • The Nuggets rolled past the Suns in the first game of their second round matchup, limiting Phoenix outside of Booker and KD (56 of the team’s 107 points) and getting strong offensive performances from Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Aaron Gordon. Jokic’s inefficiency the past few games is worrisome, but it might not matter in this series if Murray is cruising like this. Denver did shoot significantly better from three (43% to 30%), which is not something they can expect to continue for the rest of the series. They also dominated the offensive glass, which Phoenix will need to get a hold on. It’s hard to win games that you take 17 less shots in (the Suns also turned it over six more times than the Nuggets).


✅✅✅ = right team, right number of games

✅✅ = right team, one game off

✅ = right team

❌ = wrong team

Bucks in 4 (Heat won 4-1) ❌

Cavs in 6 (Knicks won 4-1) ❌

Sixers in 5 (Sixers win in 4) ✅✅

Celtics in 4 (Celtics win in 6) ✅

Nuggets in 6 (Nuggets win in 5) ✅✅

Suns in 7 (Suns win in 5) ✅

Kings in 5 (Tied 3-3)

Grizzlies in 5 (Lakers win 4-2) ❌

First round tally: 4-2 on team picks, 2 within a game 

Second Round

Nuggets in 6 (original pick)

Celtics in 5 (original pick)

Knicks in 5 (Bucks>Cavs was original pick)


NBA record: 243-215-7 ATS, 33-76 ML, 133-102-4 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, 0-1 series price -32.73 units

NBA regular season record: 225-198-7 ATS, 32-67 ML, 116-90-3 O/U, 2-10 parlay, 0-1 props, -23.62 units

NBA postseason record: 18-17 ATS, 1-9 ML, 17-11-1 O/U, 0-0 parlay, 0-1 series price, -9.05 units

  • Knicks -4
  • Knicks Heat U210


  • Kings to win series (+225)

I’ll just roll with this for the Kings. Game 7 ML of +225.

CBB record: 254-229-12 ATS, 57-83 ML, 5-5 O/U, 17-25 parlay, -9.83 units

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